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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Ecology >Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides , potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal
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Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides , potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal

机译：生态利基模型来估算辛巴油的分布，塞内加尔的蓝病毒潜在载体

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摘要

Vector-borne diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. In the Afrotropical region, some are transmitted by Culicoides, such as Akabane, bluetongue, epizootic haemorrhagic fever and African horse sickness viruses. Bluetongue virus infection has an enormous impact on ruminant production, due to its high morbidity and mortality rates. A nationwide Culicoides trapping campaign was organized at the end of the 2012 rainy season in Senegal. A Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method and Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were used to develop a predictive spatial model for the distribution of Culicoides, using bio-climatic variables, livestock densities and altitude. The altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter and livestock density were among the most important factors to predict suitable habitats of Culicoides. Culicoides occurrences were, in most of the cases, positively correlated to precipitation variables and livestock densities; and negatively correlated to the altitude and temperature indices. The Niayes area and the Groundnut basin were the most suitable habitats predicted. We present ecological niche models for different Culicoides species, namely C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini and C. miombo, potential vectors of bluetongue virus, on a nationwide scale in Senegal. Through our modelling approach, we were able to determine the effect of bioclimatic variables on Culicoides habitats and were able to generate maps for the occurrence of Culicoides species. This information will be helpful in developing risk maps for disease outbreaks.
机译：载体传染病是人类和动物中发病率和死亡率的主要原因之一。在解射区域中，有些是由核苷酸传播的，例如阿卡巴琴，蓝子，癫痫发声热和非洲马疾病病毒。由于其高发病率和死亡率，BlueTongue病毒感染对反刍动物产生影响巨大影响。在塞内加尔2012年雨季结束时组织了全国纳葫芦陷阱运动。最大熵方法（MaxEnt），提升回归树（BRT）方法和生态利基因子分析（ENFA）用于开发用于培养甙的分布的预测空间模型，使用生物气候变量，牲畜密度和高度。高度，最高温度最热的月份，最温暖的季度降水，最热潮的平均温度，温度季节性，最潮湿的季度和牲畜密度的降水是预测合适栖息地的最重要因素之一。在大多数情况下，辛酸的发生是正相关的，与降水变量和牲畜密度正相关;并与海拔高度和温度指数负相关。尼亚斯地区和地生盆地是最适合预测的栖息地。我们向不同核毒性物种的生态利基模型提出，即C.Imicola，C.Synerstoma，C.Enterline和C.Miombo，BlueTongue病毒的潜在载体，在塞内加尔的全国范围内。通过我们的建模方法，我们能够确定生物纤维素变量对核毒性栖息地的影响，并且能够生成培养物种的发生地图。这些信息将有助于开发疾病爆发风险地图。

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