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The macroeconomic determinants of stock price fluctuations in Amman Stock Exchange

机译:安曼证券交易所股价波动的宏观经济决定因素

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The purpose of this study is to identify the key macroeconomic variables that affected stock price fluctuations in Amman Stock Exchange during the period 1980-2018. Using Augmented Dickey-fuller (ADF) test, it was found that the variables did not have the same degree of integration. According to Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test, the residuals violated the constant variance assumption under Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. Therefore, the study employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology to analyze the model after taking the first difference of natural logarithm for all variables to be stationary at the same level and to show the fluctuation in the variables. It was found that fluctuations in portfolio investment and in industrial production index are statically significant to lead fluctuations in the stock price index in Amman Stock Exchange and they follow the same direction, whereas fluctuations in real effective exchange rate, real interest rate, and Brent crude oil prices were statically significant to lead fluctuations in the stock price index but in the opposite direction.
机译:本研究的目的是识别1980 - 2018年期间在安曼证券交易所的股票价格波动的关键宏观经济变量。使用增强DICKEY-FULLER(ADF)测试,发现变量没有相同程度的集成度。根据Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey测试,残差违反了普通最小二乘(OLS)模型下的恒定方差假设。因此,该研究采用了广泛的归共条件异质性(GARCH)方法,以分析模型在拍摄所有变量的自然对数的第一个差异在同一水平上静止并显示变量的波动。有人发现,投资组合投资和工业生产指数的波动在安曼证券交易所的股票价格指数中呈现统计意义,遵循相同的方向,而实际有效汇率,实际利率和布伦特原油的波动油价对股票价格指数中的波动进行了静重,但在相反的方向上。

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