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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Meteorology >Spatiotemporal Changes and Frequency Analysis of Multiday Extreme Precipitation in the Huai River Basin during 1960 to 2014
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Spatiotemporal Changes and Frequency Analysis of Multiday Extreme Precipitation in the Huai River Basin during 1960 to 2014

机译：1960年至2014年淮河流域多星期日极端降水的时空变化及频率分析

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摘要

Floods and droughts are more closely related to the extreme precipitation over longer periods of time. The spatial and temporal changes and frequency analysis of 5-day and 10-day extreme precipitations (PX5D and PX10D) in the Huai River basin (HRB) are investigated by means of correlation analysis, trend and abrupt change analysis, EOF analysis, and hydrological frequency analysis based on the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2014. The results indicate (1) PX5D and PX10D indices have a weak upward trend in HRB, and the weak upward trend may be due to the significant downward trend in the 21st century, (2) the multiday (5-day and 10-day) extreme precipitation is closely associated with flood/drought disasters in the HRB, and (3) for stations of nonstationary changes with significant upward trend after the abrupt change, if the whole extreme precipitation series are used for frequency analysis, the risk of future floods will be underestimated, and this effect is more pronounced for longer return periods.
机译：洪水和干旱更较长时间的极端降水更密切。通过相关性分析，趋势和突然变化分析，EOF分析和水文研究了淮河流域（HRB）的5天和10天极端沉淀（PX5D和PX10D）的空间和时间变化和频率分析频率分析根据1960年至2014年的每日降水量数据。结果表明（1）PX5D和PX10D指数在HRB中具有弱势趋势，弱势趋势可能是由于21世纪的显着下降趋势，（ 2）多星期五（5天和10天）极端降水与HRB中的洪水/干旱灾害密切相关，（3）对于突然变化后的非国家变化的趋势，如果整个极端降水系列用于频率分析，将未来未来的未来洪水的风险，并且这种效果更加宣称，更长的返回期。

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