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首页> 外文期刊>African Journal of Business Management >Credit extension in South Africa: A business cycle perspective for the period 1985 to 2009
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Credit extension in South Africa: A business cycle perspective for the period 1985 to 2009

机译：南非的信贷延期：1985年至2009年期间的商业周期视角

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This paper investigates and quantifies the relationship between the macroeconomic business cycle and bank-granted credit in South Africa for the period 1985 to 2009. The main question that this research seeks to answer is what role do banks play in amplifying the business cycle and what is the impact of this on the macroeconomy? The outcomes of the econometric model support the hypothesis that a positive relationship exists between bank-extended credit and the business cycle. The vector autoregression technique was used to prove the relationship between credit and the underlying cycle. The analysis shows that a two-way relationship exists between credit and the coincident indicator, credit and insolvencies and credit and prime. Results from the vector error correction model show a significant short-run relationship of equilibrium in the cointegrating equation between credit and the coincident indicator. This corroborates the underlying theory that credit is a unifying variable that rapidly responds to shocks emanating from the dynamic interaction of cointegrating variables in the economy.
机译：本文调查和量化了1985年至2009年南非南非宏观经济商业周期与银行授权信贷之间的关系。这项研究旨在追溯到答案的主要问题是银行在扩大商业周期以及什么是榜样的作用这对宏观经济的影响？计量计量模型的结果支持对银行信贷和商业周期之间存在积极关系的假设。矢量自动增加技术用于证明信用与潜在周期之间的关系。分析表明，信用与重合指标，信贷和破产和信贷和素数存在双向关系。载体误差校正模型的结果显示了信用与重合指标的协整方程中的平衡的显着短路关系。这使得信用是统一变量的潜在理论，其迅速响应来自经济中的协整变量的动态相互作用而发出的冲击。

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