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首页> 外文期刊>American Journal of Industrial and Business Management >The Welfare Effects of Pension Reforms in an Aging Economy
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The Welfare Effects of Pension Reforms in an Aging Economy

机译:养老金改革在老龄化经济中的福利效应

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摘要

This paper develops a multigenerational overlapping (OLG) model to investigate the welfare effects of pension reforms in an aging economy. Given the declining trend in the proportion of young people to the old aged, it is feared that existing pay-as-you-go pension system may not be sustainable and it necessitates higher tax or premium contributions to maintain the sustainability of the fiscal and pension system. This paper investigates the effects of four reform programs aiming to enhance the sustainability of the pension system. The programs are: (a) an increase in pension contribution, (b) a reduction in pension benefit, (c) an extension of mandatory retirement age, and (d) a combination of program (b) and (c). Policy simulation results from this paper indicate that extending mandatory retirement age harms only little of the current generations’ lifetime utility whereas it gradually improves future generations’ life time utility. On the contrary, increase in pension contribution reduces lifetime utility of the current generation without benefitting future generation. Alternately increase in contribution ratio improves future GDP growth whereas reducing replacement ratio cannot. Finally, an increase in pension contribution worsens government budgetary condition whereas reducing replacement ratio does not.
机译:本文发展了多粒重叠(OLG)模型,以研究养老金改革在老龄化经济中的福利效应。鉴于年轻人比例下降的趋势下降到老年人,令人担心现有的支付支付养老金制度可能不是可持续的,并且需要更高的税收或保费贡献,以保持财政和养老金的可持续性系统。本文调查了四项改革计划的影响,旨在提高养老金制度的可持续性。这些计划是:(a)养恤金捐助的增加,(b)养老金福利的减少,(c)强制退休年龄的延长,(d)方案(b)和(c)的组合。本文的政策仿真结果表明,扩展强制性退休年龄损害目前几代人的终身实用性的危害,而它逐渐提高了后代的生命时间效用。相反,养老金贡献的增加减少了当前一代的寿命效用,而不会受益。交替增加贡献比率提高了未来的GDP增长,而降低替代率不能。最后,养老金贡献的增加恶化了政府预算条件,而减少替代率并不是。

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