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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Chemistry >Impact of Climate Change on Seasonal Rainfall Patterns over Bale Highlands, Southeastern Ethiopia
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Impact of Climate Change on Seasonal Rainfall Patterns over Bale Highlands, Southeastern Ethiopia

机译：气候变化对埃塞俄比亚东南部高地季节性降雨模式的影响

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The objective of this study was evaluates the impact of climate change on seasonal rainfall patterns over Bale Highlands by using climate data from National Meteorology Agency and downscaling Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Cordex) output data from cordex Africa. In order to estimate the climate change signal scenarios of rainfall and temperature were developed for periods of 30 years (2011 to 2100). The outputs GCM model for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to produce the future scenarios. Instat V3.7 software was governed for this study. The sample size for this study was 768 respondents randomly selected. Results of R 2=0.58 for temperature over study area which shows that there is a good correlation between downscaled and observed data. The study shows that there is an overall increasing trend in seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and decreasing of seasonal rainfall from the base period. The onset, cessation and Length of Growing Periods in both Belg and Kiremt season shifts from the base years. Observational data, GCM date and farmer's perception showed similar result and there is a shift of seasons over Bale highlands form 2 days to dekade. During Kiremt season there was decreasing of LGP from 109 to 101. Similarly, the LGP of Belg was reduced from 84 days to 48 days at the end of 21st century. The onset of Belg season at the end of 21st century will shifts to May. The anticipated shift of Kiremt season will merging to Bega (dry season) with this the author recommended the local farmers or any concerned body uses this information which is significant amount of rainfall require appropriate acclimatization strategies to minimize risks, increase crop productivity, and avert food insecurity of the area.
机译：本研究的目的是通过使用来自国家气象学机构的气候数据和来自Cordex Africa的气候数据的气候数据来评估气候变化对令人阵容的高地季节性降雨模式的影响。为了估算降雨和温度的气候变化信号，开发了30岁（2011年至2100）。 RCP4.5和RCP8.5发射方案的输出GCM模型用于产生未来的情况。 Instat V3.7软件受到这项研究的管辖。本研究的样本量为768名受访者随机选择。 R 2 = 0.58的研究结果在研究区域的温度下表明，较次编程和观察数据之间存在良好的相关性。该研究表明，季节性最大和最低温度和季节性降雨量的总体上升趋势。 Belg和Kiremt季节在基准年份的开始，停止和长度的日益增长的时间。观察数据，GCM日期和农民的看法显示出类似的结果，并在2天到Dekade的Bale Highlands季节转移。在Kiremt季节期间，LGP从109到101减少了LGP。同样，Belg的LGP在21世纪末的84天至48天内减少。 Belg季节在21世纪末的暂停将转向五月。 Kiremt季节的预期转变将与此融合（干燥季节）与此作者建议当地农民或任何有关的机构使用这一信息，这是大量的降雨，需要适当的适应范围，以尽量减少风险，增加作物生产力和避免食物该地区的不安全感。

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