...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM 10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios
【24h】

Predicted Future Mortality Attributed to Increases in Temperature and PM 10 Concentration under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

机译：预测未来的死亡率，归因于在代表浓度途径场景下的温度和PM 10浓度增加

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

As climate change progresses, understanding the impact on human health associated with the temperature and air pollutants has been paramount. However, the predicted effect on temperature associated with particulate matter (PM 10 ) is not well understood due to the difficulty in predicting the local and regional PM 10 . We compared temperature-attributable mortality for the baseline (2003–2012), 2030s (2026–2035), 2050s (2046–2055), and 2080s (2076–2085) based on a distributed lag non-linear model by simultaneously considering assumed levels of PM 10 on historical and projected temperatures under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The considered projected PM 10 concentrations of 35, 50, 65, 80, and 95 μg/m 3 were based on historical concentration quantiles. Our findings confirmed greater temperature-attributable risks at PM 10 concentrations above 65 μg/m 3 due to the modification effect of the pollutants on temperature. In addition, this association between temperature and PM 10 was higher under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. We also confirmed regional heterogeneity in temperature-attributable deaths by considering PM 10 concentrations in South Korea with higher risks in heavily populated areas. These results demonstrated that the modification association of air pollutants on health burdens attributable to increasing temperatures should be considered by researchers and policy makers.
机译：随着气候变化的进展，了解与温度和空气污染物相关的对人体健康的影响一直至关重要。然而，由于难以预测局部和区域PM 10，对与颗粒物质（PM 10）相关的对与颗粒物质（PM 10）相关的温度的预测效果尚不清楚。我们将基线（2003-2012），2030年（2026-2035），2050s（2046-2055）和2080年（2076-2085）的温度应性死亡率进行了比较通过同时考虑假设的水平，基于分布式滞后非线性模型在代表性浓度途径（RCP）情景下的历史和投影温度下PM 10。考虑的投影PM 10浓度为35,50,65,80和95μg/ m 3基于历史浓度定量。由于污染物对温度的改性效果，我们的研究结果证实了PM 10浓度高于65μg/ m 3以上的浓度的较高风险。此外，在RCP8.5之间的温度和PM 10之间的这种关联比RCP4.5更高。我们还通过在韩国在韩国的PM 10浓度下，在韩国的浓度具有较高的人口稠密地区的风险较高，我们还确认了温度归因死亡人数的区域异质性。这些结果表明，研究人员和决策者应考虑归因于增加温度的健康负担的空气污染物的改性协会。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号