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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research >Development of system dynamics based simulation models for runway safety planning
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Development of system dynamics based simulation models for runway safety planning

机译:基于系统动力学的跑道安全规划仿真模型的开发

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Safety has been established to maintaining and improving the productivity level of aviation industry with derivable benefits in terms of wealth and reputation. Despite, the investment in aviation; safety is generally recognized as an incurred cost, leading to compliance approach. This may be due to dearth of literature on generally agreed proactive safety performance indicator to justify the huge investment. This study therefore developed predictive models that evaluate runway safety investment strategies and predict the overall performance of the aviation system using System Dynamics stock and flow diagram. An interactive computer programme of the models was written using Java programming language. The set of dynamic equations for predicting number of runway accidents, preventions, monetary savings/losses and safety programme breakeven period were the safety performance measures. Runway safety intervention effectiveness factor and level of budget implementation were system policy parameters used to control the mechanism of the runway safety system. Relevant data were obtained from Federal Aviation Authority, Nigeria to validate the models. Twenty-nine runway safety quantities were identified. The dynamic equations for number of runway accident preventions and monetary savings/losses exhibited exponential growth while number of runway accidents, exhibit exponential decay. The results of the simulation runs showed no significant difference with real life situations; thus the models can serve as useful tools to effectively and efficiently manage the behaviour and performance of runway safety programme.
机译:已经建立了安全性,以维持和提高航空行业的生产率水平,在财富和声誉方面具有越来越多的益处。尽管,航空投资;安全通常被认为是导致成本,导致合规方法。这可能是由于普遍商定的主动安全绩效指标的文学缺乏,以证明巨额投资。因此,该研究开发了评估跑道安全投资策略的预测模型,并预测使用系统动态股票和流程图的航空系统的整体性能。使用Java编程语言编写模型的交互式计算机程序。用于预测跑道事故数量,预防,货币储蓄/亏损和安全计划Breakeven期间的动态方程集是安全绩效措施。跑道安全干预效果因素和预算实施水平是用于控制跑道安全系统机制的系统政策参数。相关数据从尼日利亚联邦航空管理局获得,以验证模型。确定了29个跑道安全量。跑道事故预防数量和货币储蓄/亏损数量的动态方程表现出指数增长,而跑道事故数量呈现指数衰减。模拟运行的结果显示出与现实生活中没有显着差异;因此,该模型可以用作有用的工具,以有效和有效地管理跑道安全程序的行为和性能。

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