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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Applications >The Study of HIV/AIDS Trend in Yobe State for the Prescribed Period (1999 – 2019)
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The Study of HIV/AIDS Trend in Yobe State for the Prescribed Period (1999 – 2019)

机译：在规定时期yobe州的艾滋病毒/艾滋病趋势研究（1999 - 2019）

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The effect of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) global epidemic continue to emerge decades after the first wave of infection. Since the start of the epidemic, many measures have been taken by the government and non-governmental organizations to control the outbreak. In Yobe State, the programs implemented include enlightenment, HIV/AIDS testing, and counseling, free drugs, and therapy. The State is mainly an agricultural state created out of the old Borno State on 27 August 1991. With an estimated population of about 2.5 Million, Yobe state covers a total of 54, 428sq km land area, the state borders the Nigerian states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, and Jigawa. It borders the Diffa Region and Zinder Region to the north in the Republic of Niger. Because the state lies mainly in the dry savanna belt, the State is dry and hot for most of the year except in the southern part of the state, which has a milder climate. This study has looked at the trend of the epidemic in the state. Statistical time series trends were used in analyzing the data. Three methods of fitting trend of a time series data namely, linear trend, quadratic trend and exponential trend were employed to fit the data of HIV patients on ART. The linear trend model has MAPE, MAD and MSD values of 24.8, 147.5 and 31767.8 respectively. The quadratic model provides respective accuracy measures as MAPE=21.6, MAD=138.8 and MSD=26780.5. An exponential model gives MAPE=22.4, MAD=144.7 and MSD=29265.7. The result indicated that the quadratic model with the smallest accuracy measures have been the best and most suitable mathematical model to fit the dataset.
机译：人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得的免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病毒/艾滋病）全局疫情的效果在第一波感染后继续出现数十年。自疫情开始以来，政府和非政府组织采取了许多措施来控制爆发。在yobe状态下，实施的计划包括启蒙，艾滋病毒/艾滋病检测和咨询，自由药物和治疗。国家主要是一国1991年8月27日签出的旧婆罗洲农业国家。由于估计人口约为250万，Yobe国家占总居民国的尼日利亚尼日利亚州，婆罗洲，Gombe和jigawa。它将Diffa Region和Zinder地区与尼日尔共和国的北部边界。由于国家主要位于干燥的大草原皮带中，除了南部的南部，州大部分年度都是干燥的，除了较温和的气候。这项研究看着国家流行病的趋势。统计时间序列趋势用于分析数据。采用线性趋势，线性趋势，二次趋势和指数趋势的三种拟合趋势，符合艺术艾滋病患者的数据。线性趋势模型分别具有24.8,147.5和31767.8的MAPE，MAD和MSD值。二次模型提供各自的精度措施，如Mape = 21.6，Mad = 138.8和MSD = 26780.5。指数模型为mape = 22.4，mad = 144.7和MSD = 29265.7。结果表明，具有最小精度措施的二次模型是适合数据集的最佳和最合适的数学模型。

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