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A quantitative framework for demographic trends in size‐structured populations: analysis of threats to floodplain forests

机译：规模结构群体人口趋势的定量框架：对洪泛森林威胁的分析

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Studies of population dynamics are continually seeking to develop quantitative approaches that can be easily applied to widely available data in ways that can guide management decisions. We present a method for quantifying demographic trends in size‐structured populations that we applied to forest tree species and changes in forest structure associated with different threats to help identify forest health priorities. Strengths of the approach are that tree size and growth rate can be controlled for to separate mortality impacts of particular threats from background rates associated with stand self‐thinning. We illustrate the method with tree census data from Connecticut River floodplain forests. We found that these floodplain forests are currently declining demographically across all sizes, with floodplain pioneer tree species particularly affected. Cutting by a large beaver population is contributing to this decline. Specifically, beavers are cutting 11.4% of the Salix nigra and 1.6% of the Populus deltoides trees annually. We also showed quantitatively that Dutch elm disease and invasive lianas are important threats to the health of these forests. We estimated that Dutch elm disease caused at least 9.5% of all tree mortality. Invasive Celastrus orbiculatus lianas were implicated in 9.8% of the mortality of large floodplain trees (i.e., DBH = 60 cm) on the Lower Connecticut River (i.e., GDD 3463, base 0°C). Overall, we found that the method is flexible and could be applied to a wide range of forest types and threats.
机译：人口动态的研究不断寻求开发可以轻松应用于可以指导管理决策的方式广泛应用数据的定量方法。我们提出了一种规模结构化人口趋势的方法，我们申请森林树种和与不同威胁相关的森林结构的变化，以帮助识别森林保健优先事项。方法的优势是可以控制树尺寸和生长速度，以便将特定威胁与与站立自我变薄相关的背景率的死亡率影响。我们说明了来自康涅狄格州河洪泛区森林的树人口普查数据的方法。我们发现，这些洪泛区森林目前在各种尺寸方面处于人口统计地下降，洪泛平原树种类特别受影响。由大型海狸人口削减是促进这种衰落的贡献。具体而言，海狸每年切割11.4％的盐膜炎症和1.6％的杨树综合树木。我们也定量表明，荷兰榆树病和侵袭性莲花是对这些森林健康的重要威胁。我们估计荷兰榆树病引起了至少9.5％的树质死亡率。 Invasive Celastrus orbiculatus Lianas在下康涅狄格河（即GDD> 3463，碱基0°C）上的大型洪泛区（即DBH = 60厘米）的9.8％的死亡率中的9.8％。总的来说，我们发现该方法是灵活的，可以应用于各种森林类型和威胁。

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