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首页> 外文期刊>Geoscientific Model Development >Evaluation of CH4MODsubwetland/sub and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) used to estimate global CHsub4/sub emissions from natural wetlands
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Evaluation of CH4MODsubwetland/sub and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) used to estimate global CHsub4/sub emissions from natural wetlands

机译：CH4Mod 湿地的评估和地面生态系统模型（TEM）用于估计天然湿地的全球CH <​​sub> 4 排放量

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摘要

Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4 emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and 0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands, swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22, 0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF 0). There was a good correlation between the simulated CH4 fluxes and the observed values on most continents. However, CH4MODwetland showed no correlation with the observed values in South America and Africa. TEM showed no correlation with the observations in Europe. The global CH4 emissions for the period 2000–2010 were estimated to be 105.31 ± 2.72 Tg yr?1 by CH4MODwetland and 134.31 ± 0.84 Tg yr?1 by TEM. Both models simulated a similar spatial distribution of CH4 emissions globally and on different continents. Marshes contribute 36 %–39 % of global CH4 emissions. Lakes/rivers and swamps are the second and third greatest contributors, respectively. Other wetland types account for only approximately 20 % of global emissions. Based on the model applicability, if we use the more accurate model, i.e., the one that performs best as evidenced by a higher model efficiency and a lower model bias, to estimate each continent and wetland type, we obtain a new assessment of 116.99–124.74 Tg yr?1 for the global CH4 emissions for the period 2000–2010. Our results imply that performance at a global scale may conceal model uncertainty. Efforts should be made to improve model accuracy for different wetland types and regions, particularly hotspot regions, to reduce the uncertainty in global assessments.
机译：湿地是大气甲烷（CH4）最大，最不明显的自然来源。已经开发了几种基于过程的模型来量化全球湿地的CH4排放量的幅度和估计空间和时间变化。可靠的型号需要估算全球湿地CH4排放。该研究旨在测试两种基于过程的模型，CH4Modwetland和地面生态系统模型（TEM），针对世界各地的沼泽，沼泽，泥炭地和沿海湿地景点的CH4助焊体测量;具体而言，针对不同的湿地类型和不同的大陆评估了模型准确性和一般性，然后估计2000年至2010年的全球CH4排放量。两种模型与观察到的季节性/年度总CH4排放相似，观察到的季节性/年度CH4排放的回归分别为CH4Modwetland和TEM的R2值为0.81和0.68。 CH4Modwetland为沼泽，泥炭地，沼泽和沿海湿地提供准确的预测，模型效率（EF）值分别为0.22,0.52,0.13和0.72。 TEM为泥炭地和沼泽产生了良好的预测，分别具有0.69和0.74的EF值，但不能准确地模拟沼泽和沿海湿地（EF <0）。模拟CH4助熔剂与大多数的观察值之间存在良好的相关性。然而，CH4Modwetland与南美洲和非洲的观察价值观没有相关性。 TEM与欧洲的观察结果没有相关性。 2000 - 2010年期间的全球CH4排放量估计为105.31±2.72 TG YR？1由CH4Modwetland和134.31±0.84 TG YR？1通过TEM。这两种模型都模拟了全球和不同大陆的CH4排放的类似空间分布。沼泽贡献了全球CH4排放量的36％-39％。湖泊/河流和沼泽分别是第二和第三伟大的贡献者。其他湿地类型仅占全球排放的大约20％。基于模型适用性，如果我们使用更准确的模型，即表现最佳的模型，可以通过更高的模型效率和较低的模型偏差证明，估计每个大陆和湿地类型，我们获得116.99的新评估124.74 TG YR？1在2000-2010期间全球CH4排放。我们的结果意味着全球规模的性能可能隐藏模型不确定性。应努力提高不同湿地类型和地区，特别是热点地区的模型准确性，以减少全球评估中的不确定性。

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