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Does Scientific Uncertainty in News Articles Affect Readers’ Trust and Decision-Making?

机译：新闻文章的科学不确定性会影响读者的信任和决策吗？

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Even though a main goal of science is to reduce the uncertainty in scientific results by applying ever-improving research methods, epistemic uncertainty is an integral part of science. As such, while uncertainty might be communicated in news articles about climate science, climate skeptics have also exploited this uncertainty to cast doubt on science itself. We performed two studies to assess whether scientific uncertainty affects laypeople’s assessments of issue uncertainty, the credibility of the information, their trust in scientists and climate science, and impacts their decision-making. In addition, we addressed how these effects are influenced by further information on relevant scientific processes, because knowing that uncertainty goes along with scientific research could ease laypeople’s interpretations of uncertainty around evidence and may even protect against negative impacts of such uncertainty on trust. Unexpectedly, in study 1, after participants read both a text about research methods and a news article that included scientific uncertainty, they had lower trust in the scientists’ assertions than when they read the uncertain news article alone (but this did not impact trust in climate science or decision-making). In study 2, we tested whether these results occurred due to participants overestimating the scientific uncertainty at hand. Hence, we varied the framing of uncertainty in the text on scientific processes. We found that exaggerating the scientific uncertainty produced by scientific processes (vs. framing the uncertainty as something to be expected) did not negatively affect participants’ trust ratings. However, the degree to which participants preferred effortful reasoning on problems (intellective epistemic style) correlated with ratings of trust in scientists and climate science and with their decision-making. In sum, there was only little evidence that the introduction of uncertainty in news articles would affect participants’ ratings of trust and their decision-making, but their preferred style of reasoning did.
机译：尽管科学的主要目标是通过应用有史以来改善的研究方法来减少科学结果的不确定性，但是认知不确定性是科学的一个组成部分。因此，虽然不确定性可能会在关于气候科学的新闻文章中传达，但气候怀疑论也利用这种不确定性来对科学本身的怀疑。我们进行了两项研究，评估科学的不确定性是否会影响Laypeople对问题不确定性的评估，信息的可信度，他们对科学家和气候科学的信任，并影响他们的决策。此外，我们解决这些影响如何受到相关科学进程的进一步信息的影响，因为知道不确定性与科学研究相同，可以缓解外国人对证据周围不确定性的解释，甚至可能会防止对信任的不确定性的负面影响。出乎意料地，在研究1中，参与者阅读了关于研究方法的文本和一个包括科学不确定性的新闻文章，他们对科学家的断言的信任较低，而不是单独阅读不确定的新闻文章（但这并没有影响信任气候科学或决策）。在研究2中，我们测试了是否因参与者考虑了这些结果，因为参与者估计了手头的科学不确定性。因此，我们在科学过程中的文本中变化了不确定性的框架。我们发现，夸大科学进程（与框架的不确定性为预期的不确定性）夸大科学的不确定性并未对参与者的信任评级产生负面影响。然而，参与者更喜欢努力推理问题的程度（智力认识样式）与科学家和气候科学的信任评级以及他们的决策相关。总而言之，只有几乎没有证据表明新闻文章中的不确定性引入不确定性会影响参与者的信任评级及其决策，但他们首选的推理方式。

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