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Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

机译：农业系统的全球化风险风险评估

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Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies.Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the mostheavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made toassess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for thefirst time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated andrainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separatelyusing different drought indices based on historical climate conditions?(1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.
机译：干旱不断影响生态系统，社区和整个经济体。农业患有大部分影响，在许多国家，它是受影响的影响。在过去的几十年中，在不同的空间尺度上已经努力进行了对干旱风险的努力。在这里，我们展示了在全球范围内为灌溉和牵引农业系统的干旱风险综合评估。基于历史气候条件分别不同干旱指数的灌溉和雨量系统计算复合危险指标？（1980-2016）。分析了灌溉和非灌溉作物的暴露。通过社会生态系统（SES）的角度来评估漏洞，使用社会生态学易感性和缺乏由来自世界各地的干旱专家加权的应对能力指标。分析表明，雨量和灌溉农业系统的干旱风险在全球水平上显示出异构的模式，欧洲东南欧以及北部非洲风险较高。通过提供有关危险，暴露和脆弱性的所有维度的驱动风险的驱动器和空间模式的信息，所提出的分析可以支持识别量身定​​制的措施，以降低干旱风险，增加农业系统的恢复力。

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