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Landslide hazard probability and risk assessment at the community level: a case of western Hubei, China

机译:社区一级的滑坡危险概率和风险评估:中国湖北西部案例

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Small communities living in mountainous terrain in Hubei province are often affected by landslides. Previous studies by the China Geological Survey focused on the 1:100?000?scale. Therefore, a more detailed assessment, especially at the community level, is urgently required by local governments for risk management. In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide and risk assessment at the community level using a scale of?1:10?000. We applied the probabilistic method to assess landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities, while the hazard and risk assessment were considered for four return periods (5, 10, 20, and 50?years) and two size scenarios (landslide volume). The spatial probability from susceptibility mapping with an accuracy of 84 % indicates that the major controlling factors are Quaternary deposits and weathered eluvium from Ordovician limestones. This study revealed that most building areas in hazard maps are at the foot of major slopes with very high hazard probabilities, and therefore we computed the potential loss of life and property for each slope. The results reveal that 1530?people and USD 18?million worth of property were at risk of landslides within a 50-year return period and a landslide volume of 50 000 m3. The longer the return period is, the higher the hazard probability is. Compared with the classic inverse gamma and power law distribution of landslide magnitude and frequency, the function by the ordinary least squares method is more suitable for landslide size probability analysis of the study area. According to these methods, the proposed procedure of landslide risk assessment proves more useful than the existing data from the 1:100?000?scale in western Hubei, China.
机译:生活在湖北省山区地形的小社区往往受到山体滑坡的影响。以前的中国地质调查的研究专注于1:100?000?规模。因此,当地政府对风险管理迫切需要更详细的评估,特别是在社区层面。在这项研究中,我们在社区一级进行了更详细的半定量滑坡和风险评估?1:10?000。我们应用了概率方法来评估滑坡空间,时间和尺寸概率,而危险和风险评估被认为是四个返回期(5,10,20和50岁)和两种尺寸的情况(滑坡卷)。具有84%的准确性的易感性映射的空间概率表明主要控制因素是来自Ordovician石灰岩的第四季沉积和风化的Eluvium。本研究表明,危险地图中的大多数建筑面积都是具有非常高的危险概率的主要斜坡脚,因此我们计算了每个坡度的潜在损失和财产。结果表明,1530人(1530人)和18亿美元的财产有50年返回期内山体滑坡的风险,山垫层体积为50 000 m3。返回期的较长越长,危险概率越高。与滑坡幅度和频率的经典反伽马和电力法分布相比,普通最小二乘法的功能更适合研究区域的滑坡尺寸概率分析。根据这些方法,拟定的滑坡风险评估程序证明了比1:100 000的现有数据更有用,这些数据在中国湖北省西部的规模。

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