• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Lesnicky casopis >Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis a?? examples taken from Podpo??anie and Kysuce
【24h】

Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis a?? examples taken from Podpo??anie and Kysuce

机译：森林管理场景与形态分析建模A？从podpo antia和couce取出的例子

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpo??anie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future.
机译：场景建模为森林管理提供如何设想与各种自然，社会或经济不确定性相关的复杂未来。挑战是选择的建模方法，以及存在对情景建筑的许多方法论方法。形态学分析是用于结构和分析多维，不可定量和复杂主题中存在的整组关系的基本建模方法。特别是，当需要调查抽象政策或市场驱动的挑战时，其申请是相关的。在这项研究中，我们证明了与斯洛伐克森林管理中的一个例子的形态分析的有用性。从多个不确定的期货，使用该方法的使用使得在PODPO和凯西的区域可能森林管理方向的可能，可粘性和一致的未来情景。此外，作为定量模型或林业DS支持的定性研究的未来情景建模可以在森林管理建模中引入参与和更多尺寸。因此，未来的情景建模提供了如何处理如何处理与对各种生态系统服务或气候变化负面影响的日益增长的不确定性增加的不确定性，斯洛伐克的森林管理将在不久的将来面临。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号