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首页> 外文期刊>SAGE Open >The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index
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The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index

机译：美国总统大选2012年至2016年和投资者的情绪：CBOE市场波动指数的案例

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摘要

Given that political events have substantial effect on new economic policies and economic performance of the country, this article aims to examine the behavior of the investors’ sentiment in terms of implied volatility index trailed by the U.S. presidential elections. The study empirically tests whether the presidential elections in 2012/2016 do contain the important market inclusive information to explain the expected stock market volatility. The findings indicate that investors’ concern was distracted around the presidential elections window, albeit the market performed identically in both the presidential election years. The significant fall in the implied volatility level (post-election period) is the calm before the storm, just wait and watch. The positive estimate uncovers the fact that investor worries were higher before the election day. In particular, the significant estimate of the presidential election debate shows that investors do regard the minutes of the presidential election debates in their portfolio selection. At the two elections era, on the candidacy of both the parties, the empirical result speaks marginally contrasting outcomes and falsifies the presidential election cycle hypothesis of past 29 U.S. election years. Empirical estimates conclude that the presidential elections in 2012/2016 have a strong, significant relationship with investor’s sentiment and stock market performance.
机译：鉴于政治事件对全国新的经济政策和经济绩效有重大影响，本文旨在审查美国总统选举落后的暗示波动指数方面的投资者情绪的行为。该研究经验测试了2012/2016年总统选举是否包含重要的市场包容性信息，以解释预期的股票市场波动。调查结果表明，投资者的关切在总统选举窗口周围分散注意力，尽管市场在总统选举年间与市场相同。在暗示波动率（选举期间）的重大落下是风暴前的平静，慢慢观察。积极的估计揭示了投资者在选举日之前的担忧更高的事实。特别是，总统选举辩论的重大估计表明，投资者在投资组合选择中讨论总统选举辩论的纪要。在两次选举时代，对双方的候选资料，经验结果讲得略微对比的结果，伪造了过去29美元的总统选举周期假设。实证估计得出结论，2012年2016年的总统选举与投资者的情感和股票市场表现具有强大，重要的关系。

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