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首页> 外文期刊>ournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan >Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model
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Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Japan with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

机译：具有高分辨率区域气候模型的热带气旋降水的未来投影

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?This study evaluates possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan under a future warmer climate using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05) under the RCP8.5 scenario. NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than does a general circulation model with a resolution of 20 km. The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to decrease under the future climate, while the TC precipitation rate increases. As these two effects cancel each other out, total TC precipitation, and the frequency of the moderate TC precipitation that is usual under the present climate, shows no significant change. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification of the TC precipitation rate outweighs the reduction in TC frequency. The increase in the TC precipitation rate is caused primarily by the increase in water vapor around the TCs, which in turn results from the increase in environmental water vapor. The intensification and structural changes to TCs also contribute to the enhanced TC precipitation.
机译：答：本研究评估了在未来温暖的气候下使用由非静液压区域气候模型产生的集合投影在未来的温暖气候下对日本进行热带气旋（TC）降水的可能变化，该气候模型在RCP8.5场景下的5公里（NHRCM05）。 NHRCM05比一般循环模型更准确地再现TC降水和TC强度，分辨率为20公里。接近日本的TCS的数量被预计在未来的气候下减少，而TC降水率增加。由于这两种效果相互抵消，总TC降水量和通常在当前气候下通常的中等TC降水的频率显示出明显的变化。另一方面，极端TC降水量的频率显着增加，因为TC降水率的强化超过了TC频率的降低。 TC降水率的增加主要是通过TCS周围的水蒸气的增加引起的，这又产生了环境水蒸气的增加。对TCS的强化和结构变化也有助于增强的TC降水。

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