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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences >Projections of Selenga river runoff in the XXI century and uncertainty estimates
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Projections of Selenga river runoff in the XXI century and uncertainty estimates

机译：锡城河径流在XXI世纪的预测和不确定性估计

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The Selenga River, which originates in Mongolia, contributes nearly 50 % of the total inflow into Lake Baikal. Since 1996, the longest low-flow period has been observed. This paper focuses on the spatially distributed process-based modeling to assess possible runoff changes under climate projections in the XXI century using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) from ISI-MIP2 (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2) and RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway) as inputs. The ECOMAG hydrological model was applied to simulate possible runoff changes in the Selenga River basin. According to the simulations, the low-flow runoff into Lake Baikal will be continued throughout the XXI century under all the RCP-scenarios. Furthermore, as hydrological projections for the future are characterized by significant climate projections uncertainty, ANOVA (analyses of variance) test was used to quantify the sources of this uncertainty. The calculations showed that the contribution of the model uncertainty (differences between GCMs) is much higher than the contribution of the scenario uncertainty (variability of RCP-scenarios) although it increases at the end of the century.
机译：索伦加河起源于蒙古，占贝加尔湖总流入的近50％。自1996年以来，已经观察到最长的低流量期。本文侧重于空间分布的基于过程的建模，以评估XXI世纪的气候预测下可能使用来自ISI-MIP2的全球气候模型（GCMS）的气候预测下可能的径流变化（跨部门影响模型离法项目，第2阶段）和RCP-Scenarios（代表浓度途径）作为输入。应用ECOMAG水文模型来模拟Selenga River盆地可能的径流变化。根据模拟，在所有RCP场景下，将在整个XXI世纪延续到贝加尔湖的低流量径流。此外，由于未来的水文投影的特征在于，通过显着的气候预测不确定性，ANOVA（方差分析）测试用于量化这种不确定性的来源。该计算表明，模型不确定性的贡献（GCMS之间的差异）远高于场景不确定性的贡献（RCP-Scenarios的可变性），尽管它在本世纪末增加。

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