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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences >Modelling future hydroclimatic effects on the iCoregonus migratorius/i spawning migration in the Selenga River and Lake Baikal
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Modelling future hydroclimatic effects on the iCoregonus migratorius/i spawning migration in the Selenga River and Lake Baikal

机译：在Selenga河和贝加尔湖中的 Coregonus Migratorius 产卵迁移建模未来的循环效应

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摘要

Regional climate change affects the flow conditions in river basins which can impact the health of aquatic ecosystems. Potential impacts of future climate scenarios on Coregonus migratorius spawning migration in the Selenga River were assessed. A regional process-based hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical trends in the annual flow and assess its future changes under several climate change scenarios. Annual flow projections were used to identify preferential river reaches for spawning activity of the Arctic cisco (Coregonus migratorius), based on the significant negative correlation of spawning activity with the Selenga River streamflow. The applied methodology shows that the projected decline in runoff of 10 % to 25 % in XXI century may result in shifting of the spawning locations further upstream of the Ulan-Ude city, a local “pollution hotspot”.
机译：区域气候变化会影响河流流域的流动条件，这可能影响水生生态系统的健康。评估了未来气候情景对塞朗达河流迁移迁移的未来气候情景的潜在影响。基于区域过程的水文模型用于重现年度流量的历史趋势，并在几个气候变化方案下评估其未来变化。年流量投影用于识别优先河到北极思科（Coregonus Migratorius）的产卵活动，基于与Selenga River Streamflow的产卵活动的显着负相关性。应用方法表明，XXI世纪径流的预计下降量为10％至25％，可能导致乌兰 - 乌德市的进一步进一步转移，这是一个当地的“污染热点”。

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