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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Clinical Medicine >Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)
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Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)

机译：评估降低旅行对新型冠状病毒感染的出口动态的影响（Covid-19）

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The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.
机译：在中国大陆和2月20日在中国大陆和2月在中国大陆和2月在中国境外的新冠状病毒（Covid-19）感染的报告中量化了旅行量的影响。通过统计模型分析了中国以外诊断的确诊病例的数据，以估计旅行减少对三个流行病学结果措施的影响：（i）出口案件的数量，（ii）主要流行病的概率，（iii）时间延迟到一个主要的流行病。从1月28日至2月7日至2月7日，我们估计，预防226例出口病例（95％置信区间：86,449），与反事实情况相比，发病率减少70.4％。在日本的重大疫情的可能性降低至20％，导致两天主要流行的中位时间延迟。根据场景，估计的延迟可能不到一天。随着延误较小，通过限制行动自由度来控制旅行量的决定应在由此产生的估计流行病学影响和预测的经济辐射之间进行平衡。

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