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Forecasting COVID-19 in Morocco

机译：在摩洛哥预测Covid-19

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摘要

The COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. As of April 26, 2020, this pandemic has caused in Morocco more than 4065 confirmed infections and more than 161 reported deaths. To mitigate this epidemic threat and act quickly, it is very important to monitor and analyze changing trends and predict what might happen in the future. The main objective of this paper is to develop a successful prediction. We used in this study at the end of each week the TBATS model to forecast confirmed cases. This model is calculated on the basis of the daily historical data. From the results obtained we can conclude that the predictions obtained are close to reality and for the peak of this epidemic is not yet identified. The obtained results shows that this epidemics will continue to grow. For our forecast from 04/27/2020 to 05/03/2020 we estimate that the number of affected cases will achieve 4367 cases.
机译：Covid-19已成为国际问题的公共卫生紧急情况。截至2020年4月26日，这种大流行病在摩洛哥引起4065以上的确诊感染，超过161例报告的死亡。为了缓解这种流行病威胁并迅速行动，监测和分析变化的趋势并预测将来可能发生的事情非常重要。本文的主要目标是发展成功的预测。我们在每周结束时使用的TBATS模型来预测确认案件。该模型是根据日常历史数据计算的。从获得的结果，我们可以得出结论，所获得的预测接近现实，并且尚未确定该疫情的峰值。获得的结果表明，这种流行病将继续增长。对于我们预测从04/27/2020到05/03/2020，我们估计影响案件的数量将实现4367例。

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