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A Model for Creative Products to Forecast and Its Production Plan Solved by ACO

机译:ACO解决创意产品的模型及其生产计划

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—Creative product is special product, which has characteristics like short product life cycle, big market risk and so on. The market is changed very soon, and the needs of customers are changed quickly, too. In order to increase the profit and decrease the cost, it is necessary to forecast the demand and make production plan. The product plan is developed according to the quantity of demand, but creative product has no historical sell data to base on, what’s more, the demand is unknowable, the information of market is delayed, so it’s difficult to forecast accurately. Trend Extrapolation is a way to forecast, and there are many models such as The Gompertz Curve and Pearl curve. The Gompertz curve is used to analysis the development, progress, maturity and decline of new products which is consist with the several stage of product life cycle, the author will use it to forecast, then make production plan of it and use ant colony optimization (ACO) to find the best answer.
机译:-Croarive产品是特殊产品,具有较短的产品生命周期,市场风险大等特点。市场发生了很快,而且客户的需求也很快改变。为了增加利润并降低成本,有必要预测需求和制定生产计划。产品计划根据需求量开发,但创造性产品没有历史销售数据基础,更重要的是,需求是不可知的,市场信息延迟,因此很难准确预测。趋势外推是一种预测的方式,并且有许多型号,如Gompertz曲线和珍珠曲线。 Gompertz曲线用于分析新产品的开发,进展,成熟度和衰退,该产品与产品生命周期的几个阶段组成,作者将使用它来预测,然后制作它的生产计划并使用蚁群优化( ACO)找到最佳答案。

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