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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Mathematical Finance >Identifying House Price Booms, Bubbles and Busts: A Disequilibrium Analysis from Chaos Theory
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Identifying House Price Booms, Bubbles and Busts: A Disequilibrium Analysis from Chaos Theory

机译：识别房价繁荣，泡沫和半身像：混乱理论的不平衡分析

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This research was motivated by the excesses of public policy since 2008 in an attempt to re-inflate the housing markets. Is it even possible or desirable to utilize such a vast amount of public resources to inflate a single sector such as housing that suffered from such a spectacular bubble and collapse? The consequences suggest that, as a way to bolster real household incomes and aggregate output, these policies have disappointed. In contrast, there is a fear that the monetary stimuli will lead to unsustainable housing price inflation, if not a bubble. I address these questions in the analysis from the standpoint of determining the stable equilibrium and sustainable house price appreciation rates consistent with the growth of median household income. The problem of identifying stable house price appreciation is to first identify the major proximate determinants of household demand for housing. A second is to show empirically the movement, deviation, and variation of these factors over time compared to housing prices. I use median household income as the major demand factor for houses and median single family house prices as an indicator of the price. A third is determining the stable equilibrium of the growth of these factors and the appreciation of housing prices consistent with them. And a fourth is the adjustment process when there are small deviations from steady-state equilibrium compared to when deviations are large. It is this last distinction where the chaos theory of self-organizing systems and irreversibility of the housing market system enters to explain how the adjustment process is chaotic in this case. I conclude that, as of the beginning of June 2016, the evidence is overwhelming that housing price appreciation is in a bubble that will likely lead to significant declines in house price appreciation if not in house prices. An important policy recommendation to mitigate these declines and hasten a house price recovery follows. The continuation of expansionary monetary policies will only delay house price adjustments and lead to more severe price declines.
机译：自2008年以来，这项研究是由2008年以来的过度公共政策，试图重新膨胀住房市场。甚至可能或期望利用这种大量公共资源来膨胀单个扇区，例如患有这种壮观的泡沫和塌陷的壳体？后果表明，作为鲍尔斯特真正的家庭收入和总产量的一种方式，这些政策感到失望。相比之下，担心货币刺激将导致不可持续的住房价格通胀，如果不是泡沫。我在分析中解决了这些问题，从确定稳定的均衡和可持续房价升值率符合中位家庭收入的增长。确定稳定房价升值的问题是首先确定家庭需求的主要决定因素。与住房价格相比，一秒钟就是凭经验展示这些因素的运动，偏差和变化。我使用中位家庭收入作为房屋和中位家庭房屋价格的主要需求因素作为价格的指标。第三是确定这些因素的增长的稳定均衡，并且与他们的住房价格的升值升值。当与偏差相比，当与稳态均衡有小的偏差时，第四个是调整过程。这是最后一个区分，其中自组织系统的混乱理论和住房市场系统的不可逆转进入解释调整过程如何在这种情况下进行混乱。我得出结论，截至2016年6月初，证据强大的是，房价升值是在泡沫中的泡沫可能导致房价升值的显着下降，如果没有房屋价格。将这些拒付和加速房价恢复的重要政策建议如下。扩张性货币政策的延续只会推迟房价调整并导致更严重的价格下降。

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