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Cointegration Analysis of the Relationship between the Prices of Crude Oil and Its Petroleum Products in Ghana

机译：加纳原油及其石油产品价格与其石油产品关系的协整分析

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This paper investigates the relationship between prices of crude oil and its petroleum products such as Gasoline, Gas oil, Residual fuel oil (RFO) and premix fuel in Ghana. The monthly data of Brent crude oil and the prices of petroleum products for the period from January 2009 to June 2019 were used. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds cointegration test was employed to show the existence of a long run relationship between crude oil prices and the prices of petroleum products. An ARDL-based error correction model (ECM) was used to estimate the short and long run effect between the variables. Results from the cointegration test revealed the inexistence of a long run relationship between the prices of crude oil and premix fuel prices. It was established that while crude oil prices have both short and the long run effects on the prices of Gasoline, Gas oil and Residual fuel oil, inflation had significant positive effect on only the prices of residual fuel. Exchange rate had significant negative effects on the prices of Gasoline, Gasoil and Residual fuel oil in both the short and long run. Results from the Wald’s Granger Causality test indicated a uni-causal relationship running from Crude oil to Gasoline, Gas oil and RFO. There is no causal relationship between Inflation rate and Gasoline, Gas oil.
机译：本文调查了原油价格与其石油产品的关系，如汽油，瓦斯油，残余燃料油（RFO）和加纳预混燃料。使用了Brent原油的月度数据和2009年1月至2019年6月的石油产品价格。自归分布式滞后（ARDL）界共同化试验旨在表明原油价格与石油产品价格之间的长期关系存在。基于ARDL的纠错模型（ECM）用于估计变量之间的短期和长期效果。协整考验的结果揭示了原油和预混燃料价格价格之间长期关系的不存在关系。正建立，虽然原油价格既短期又长期影响汽油，瓦斯油和剩余燃料油的价格，但通货膨胀率仅对剩余燃料的价格具有显着的积极影响。汇率对短期和长期运行的汽油，池油和残留燃料油价格具有显着的负面影响。 Wald的Granger因果关系测试结果表明了从原油到汽油，瓦斯油和RFO运行的单因子关系。通货膨胀率和汽油，瓦斯油之间没有因果关系。

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