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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Mathematical Finance >Modeling Botswana Beef-Cattle Price Dynamics
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Modeling Botswana Beef-Cattle Price Dynamics

机译：博茨瓦纳牛肉价格动态

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We investigate the dynamics of the beef-cattle pricing which is affected by several factors such as beef supply, demand for foreign currency, etc. The model incorporates mean-reversion to give insights into the relationship be-tween supply to a developed region (or country) and a third world country’s demand for hard currency. We consider the beef-cattle industry which is seg-mented into two markets: the Farmer-Local Cattle Agency (LCA) market in which the LCA buys cattle from the farmers and the LCA-European Union (EU) market in which the LCA exports beef to the EU. Using the Botswana-EU as an example, we investigate the performance of the Botswana Meat Com-mission (BMC) which buys cattle from the farmers and exports beef to the EU based on the price acceptable to the EU and ask whether the agreed price be-tween the BMC and the EU can ever translate into fair price between the farmer and the BMC. Our study has concluded that the operational problems faced by the BMC are an indication that the BMC is passing on the bulk of what it receives from the EU to the farmers. We have made suggestions on how the BMC can reduce its operational risks.
机译：我们调查牛肉牛定价的动态，这受诸如牛肉供应，外汇需求等几个因素的影响。该模型包含平均归荷，以便对发达国部的关系（或国家）和第三世界国家对硬币的需求。我们认为牛牛行业被SEG-DENTED分为两种市场：农民 - 本地牛代理（LCA）市场，其中LCA购买来自农民的牛和LCA-欧盟（欧盟）市场，其中LCA出口牛肉到欧盟。用博茨瓦纳 - 欧盟为例，我们调查了博茨瓦纳肉类组织（BMC）的表现，这些使命（BMC）为来自农民购买牛的牛，并根据欧盟可接受的价格出口牛肉，并询问商定的价格是否 - BMC和欧盟可以在农民和BMC之间转化为公平价格。我们的研究得出结论，BMC面临的操作问题表明BMC正在从欧盟到农民收到的大部分。我们提出了关于BMC如何降低其运营风险的建议。

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