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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Public Health >Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004–2025
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Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004–2025

机译：估计过去和未来时间趋势在卡拉斯坦女性妇女的年龄特异性乳腺癌发病率：2004-2025

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The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004-2015), and to estimate the future volume of breast cancer cases in Karachi through the year 2025. Two statistical methods, namely the functional time series models and the log-linear regression model were used; additionally, their real forecasting efficacy in epidemic time series was also evaluated. In the past, women aged 60-64?years had the highest overall breast cancer incidence rates, while from 2016 to 2025, large increases in breast cancer rates among women aged 50 to 64?years are expected. The total projected breast cancer incidence will increase by approximately 23.1% in 2020 to 60.7% in 2025. Cases of breast cancer diagnosed in younger women, aged 30-34?years, will increase from 70.7 to 130.6% in 2020 and 2025 relative to 2015. The breast cancer incidence appeared to have been rising more rapidly among post-menopausal women (aged 55 to 59), while a stable increase in incidence in the youngest age group (15-29?years) of women is expected. The results also infer an expected increase in incidence cases of breast cancer among middle aged women in Karachi, Pakistan. An increase in the number of incident cases of cancer has implications for understanding the health-care needs of growing population and the subsequent demands on health-care system.
机译：目前的人口趋势表明，乳腺癌将在巴基斯坦将来带来更大的公共卫生问题。有关乳腺癌发病率，疾病严重程度和死亡率的细节是有限的，因此，没有这样的数据，因此，在这种疾病方面的未来卫生政策或系统无法进行战略计划或实施。本研究的目的是研究过去特异性乳腺癌发病率（2004-2015）的过去趋势，并通过2025年估算卡拉奇的未来乳腺癌病例。两个统计方法，即功能时间序列使用模型和对数线性回归模型;此外，还评估了疫情时间序列中的实际预测疗效。在过去，60-64岁的女性患有最高的整体乳腺癌发病率，而2016年至2025年，乳腺癌率大幅增加，患者年龄50至64岁以下是预期的。预计乳腺癌发病率将在2020年的2020年增加约23.1％至60.7％。患者诊断为30-34岁的乳腺癌，年龄在30-34岁以下，将从2020年和2025年增加到2015年的70.7％至130.6％ 。乳腺癌发病率似乎在绝经后妇女（55至59岁）之间较快升高，而预计最年轻的年龄组（15-29岁）的发病率稳定增加。结果还推断出在巴基斯坦卡拉奇中年妇女中乳腺癌发病率的预期增加。癌症的事件案件数量增加对了解人口生长的保健需求以及随后对卫生保健系统的需求的影响。

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