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Penetration of Electric Vehicles toward 2050: Analysis Utilizing an Energy System Model Incorporating High-Temporal-Resolution Power Generation Sector

机译：电动车辆朝向2050的渗透：利用包含高时分辨率发电扇区的能量系统模型的分析

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This paper examines possible future penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) toward decarbonization of energy system in Japan by utilizing a bottom-up energy technology mix model which incorporates a high-temporal-resolution power sector. The model is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model, which has capability of considering intermittent output of variable renewables, hourly-adjustment of electricity demand and supply using advanced technologies including large-scale batteries, EVs’ charging and energy conversion to hydrogen or heat. Simulation results reveal that EVs are highly likely to be deployed in the freight transport sector because the EVs’ annual utilization rate is generally higher than that in the passenger sector and it is relatively easy to recover higher investment cost through fuel savings. It is also found out that severe carbon reduction constraint does not necessarily bring about massive penetration of EVs because lowering carbon intensity in the power sector would play a primary role for decarbonization of whole energy system. However, little availability of decarbonized imported hydrogen and EVs’ cost reduction would lead to the brisk dissemination of the vehicles.
机译：本文通过利用包括高时分辨率的电力部门的自下而上的能量技术混合模型，审查了电动车辆（EVS）对日本能源系统脱碳的可能性渗透。该模型配制为大型线性编程模型，具有考虑可变可再生能源的间歇输出，每小时调整电力需求和使用包括大型电池的先进技术，EVS的充电和能量转换为氢气或供应热。仿真结果表明，由于EVS的年度利用率通常高于货运部门，EVS很可能在运输部门部署，而是通过乘客领域的年度利率率较高，而且通过储蓄恢复更高的投资成本。还发现，严重的碳还原限制不一定引起电源的大规模渗透，因为降低电力部门中的碳强度将发挥全能系统的脱碳的主要作用。然而，脱碳的进口氢和EVS的成本降低的几乎没有可用性会导致车辆的轻快传播。

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