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首页> 外文期刊>E3S Web of Conferences >Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events
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Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events

机译：在洪水事件期间，在洪水发生期间造成的铁路桥故障的全网络风险评估

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Localised erosion (scour) during flood flow conditions can lead to costly damage or catastrophic failure of bridges, and in some cases loss of life or significant disruption to transport networks. Here, we take a broad scale view to assess risk associated with bridge scour during flood events over an entire infrastructure network, illustrating the analysis with data from the British railways. There have been 54 recorded events since 1846 in which scour led to the failure of railway bridges in Britain. These events tended to occur during periods of extremely high river flow, although there is uncertainty about the precise conditions under which failures occur, which motivates a probabilistic analysis of the failure events. We show how data from the historical bridge failures, combined with hydrological analysis, have been used to construct fragility curves that quantify the conditional probability of bridge failure as a function of river flow, accompanied by estimates of the associated uncertainty. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a national, spatial joint probability model for extremes in river flows. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event, and provide an empirical basis for further broad-scale network risk analysis.
机译：洪水流量条件期间的局部侵蚀（冲刷）可以导致昂贵的武器造成昂贵或灾难性失败，并且在某些情况下，对运输网络的损失或显着的破坏。在这里，我们采取了广泛的尺度视图，以评估与整个基础设施网络的洪水事件中与桥梁冲刷相关的风险，说明了来自英国铁路的数据的分析。自1846年以来，已有54个录制的事件，其中Scour导致英国铁路桥的失败。这些事件倾向于在极高的河流流程期间发生，尽管发生了故障发生的确切条件存在不确定性，这激励了对失败事件的概率分析。我们展示了如何与水文分析相结合的历史桥梁故障的数据是如何构建脆弱曲线，这些曲线量化桥梁失效的条件概率，伴随着相关的不确定性的估计。使用从河流中极端的全国空间关节概率模型模拟的洪水事件来测试新的脆弱性分析。与洪水事件中预期的桥梁故障数量的历史观察相比，组合模型显得强大，并为进一步的广泛网络风险分析提供了实证基础。

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