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Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5?°C and 2?°C global warming

机译：环境依赖于1.5°C和2？°C下降下降的环境变化的依赖性

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摘要

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2?°C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5?°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5?°C and 2?°C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5?°C (from 1.5?°C to 2?°C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5?°C warming from 1.5?°C to 2?°C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2?°C warming.
机译：2015年巴黎协议旨在限制在2°C以下的全球变暖，并努力将其限制为1.5°C，相对于产业前水平。决策者需要有关这些加热水平的影响的可靠信息，以实现气候缓解和适应措施。我们探讨了气候极端的变化，它与经济损失和伤亡密切相关，低于1.5？°C和2？°C全球变暖及其使用三组集合全球气候模型模拟的方案依赖。升温为0.5？°C（从1.5Ω℃到2℃）导致大多数区域的温度和降水极端的显着增加。然而，在变暖水平下，气候极端的预计变化高度取决于排放情景的途径，不同的温室气体（GHG）/气溶胶强制比和温室气体水平。此外，在这种情况下，几个严重污染的区域中存在多元差异，在沉淀极端的变化中，由于额外的0.5Ω℃从1.5Ω℃加热至2°C。我们的结果表明，在评估全球1.5 / 2°C变暖的影响时，必须考虑排放情景的化学成型，而不仅仅是辐射迫使和产生的变暖水平。

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