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首页> 外文期刊>Scientific reports. >Monitoring soil radon during the 2016–2017 central Italy sequence in light of seismicity
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Monitoring soil radon during the 2016–2017 central Italy sequence in light of seismicity

机译：在2016-2017中央意大利序列中监测土壤氡，鉴于地震性

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The radioactive nature of radon makes it a powerful tracer for fluid movements in the crust, and a potentially effective marker to study processes connected with earthquakes preparatory phase. To explore the feasibility of using soil radon variations as earthquakes precursor, we analyse the radon concentration data recorded by two stations located close to the epicentre of the strongest mainshock (Mw 6.5 on October 30, 2016) of the seismic sequence which affected central Italy from August 2016. The two stations CTTR and NRCA operate in the framework of the permanent Italian Radon monitoring Network and recorded almost continuously since 2012 and 2016, respectively, the latter being installed just after the first mainshock of the sequence (Mw 6.0 on August 24, 2016). An increase of radon emanation is clearly visible about 2?weeks before the Mw 6.5 event on both the time series, more pronounced on NRCA, nearer to the epicentre, suggesting the possibility of a direct association with the earthquake occurrence. An independently developed detection algorithm aimed at highlighting the connections between radon emission variations and major earthquakes occurrence succeeds in forecasting the Mw 6.5 mainshock on NRCA time series. The resulting time advance of the alarm is consistent with that obtained using a Bayesian approach to compute the a posteriori probability of multiple change points on the radon time series of NRCA. Moreover, it is in agreement with the delay time which maximizes the correlation between radon and seismic anomalies. Applying the detection algorithm to CTTR time series returns alarms for both the Mw 6.0 event, with epicentre closer to this station, and the stronger Mw 6.5 event, but with a higher number of false detections. Finally, we found that a preliminary correction of the bias introduced by variations of meteorological parameters does not affect our main finding of an increase in radon concentration before the major mainshocks. Our study confirms that, although much work is still needed, a monitoring approach based on a permanent dense network is crucial for making radon time series analysis an effective complement to traditional seismological tools.
机译：Radon的放射性是一种强大的示踪剂，用于地壳中的流体运动，以及潜在有效的标记，以研究与地震预备阶段连接的过程。为了探讨使用土壤氡变异作为地震前体的可行性，我们分析了两个站靠近最强主震（2016年10月30日MW 6.5的MW 6.5）的站点所记录的氡浓度数据，从而影响意大利中部的地震序列2016年8月。两个站点CTTR和NRCA在永久意大利氡监测网络的框架内运作，自2012年和2016年以来几乎不断录制后，后者在序列的第一个主叫之后安装（MW 6.0 8月24日， 2016）。氡气散发的增加明显可见约2？在MW 6.5事件上的时间序列，NRCA更加明显，越来越近的震中，建议与地震发生的可能性。独立开发的检测算法旨在突出氡发射变化与主要地震发生之间的连接成功预测NRCA时间序列MW 6.5主屏幕。警报的结果前进与使用贝叶斯方法获得的时间一致，以计算NRCA的氡时间序列上的多个变化点的后验概率。此外，它与最大化氡和地震异常之间的相关性最大化的延迟时间一致。将检测算法应用于CTTR时间序列，返回MW 6.0事件的警报，ePicenter靠近该站，更强大的MW 6.5事件，但具有更高数量的错误检测。最后，我们发现通过气象参数变化引入的偏差初步校正不会影响我们在主要主轴之前增加氡浓度的主要发现。我们的研究证实，虽然仍然需要很多工作，但基于永久密集的网络的监测方法对于使氡时间序列分析具有对传统地震工具的有效补充至关重要。

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