Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m?2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be ?1.6 ± 0.3 W m?2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.
展开▼
机译：改善海洋热含量的观察表明，即使在最近的太阳最小值期间，地球从太阳辐射到空间时，地球吸收更多的能量。推断的行星能量不平衡，0.58±0.15 W m？2在6年期间2005 - 2010年期间，确认人造温室效应在推动全球气候变化方面的主导作用。观察到的表面温度变化和海洋热量增益在一起限制了净气候迫使和海洋搅拌率。我们得出结论，大多数气候模型将其混合得太热到深海，因此低估了人造气溶胶的负面强制。今天推断出气溶胶气候强迫？2，暗示通过云变化的大量气溶胶间接气候迫使气氛迫使。继续量化这种大型强迫的具体起源无法维持，因为需要改变气溶胶效应的知识来理解未来的气候变化。我们得出结论，最近海洋热吸收的放缓是由Pinatubo气溶胶山和深度延长的太阳能最小的延迟反弹效果引起的。观测到的海平面上升在Argo浮子时代被冰融化和海洋热膨胀令人易于占，但冰融化的上升导致我们预计这十年的海平面升高的加速。
展开▼
