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Re-evaluation of the lifetimes of the major CFCs and CH3CCl3 using atmospheric trends

机译:使用大气趋势重新评估主要氟氯化碳和CH3CCL3的寿命

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Since the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments came into effect, growth rates of the major ozone depleting substances (ODS), particularly CFC-11, -12 and -113 and CH3CCl3, have declined markedly, paving the way for global stratospheric ozone recovery. Emissions have now fallen to relatively low levels, therefore the rate at which this recovery occurs will depend largely on the atmospheric lifetime of these compounds. The first ODS measurements began in the early 1970s along with the first lifetime estimates calculated by considering their atmospheric trends. We now have global mole fraction records spanning multiple decades, prompting this lifetime re-evaluation. Using surface measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Division (NOAA GMD) from 1978 to 2011, we estimated the lifetime of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and CH3CCl3 using a multi-species inverse method. A steady-state lifetime of 45 yr for CFC-11, currently recommended in the most recent World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion, lies towards the lower uncertainty bound of our estimates, which are 544861 yr (1-sigma uncertainty) when AGAGE data were used and 524561 yr when the NOAA network data were used. Our derived lifetime for CFC-113 is significantly higher than the WMO estimates of 85 yr, being 10999121 (AGAGE) and 10997124 (NOAA). New estimates of the steady-state lifetimes of CFC-12 and CH3CCl3 are consistent with the current WMO recommendations, being 11195132 and 11295136 yr (CFC-12, AGAGE and NOAA respectively) and 5.044.925.20 and 5.044.875.23 yr (CH3CCl3, AGAGE and NOAA respectively).
机译:由于蒙特利尔关于消耗臭氧层的物质及其修正案的物质,因此主要臭氧消耗物质(ODS),特别是CFC-11,-12和-113和CH3CCL3的生长速率显着下降,铺平了道路对于全球平流层臭氧恢复。排放现已跌至相对较低的水平,因此该恢复发生的速率主要取决于这些化合物的大气寿命。第一个ODS测量开始于20世纪70年代早期,以及通过考虑其大气趋势来计算的第一寿命估计。我们现在拥有多十年的全球鼹鼠分数记录,提示这一生命周期重新评估。从1978年至2011年,使用高级全球大气气体实验(疟原虫)和国家海洋和大气管理局全球监测部(NOAA GMD)的全球测量,我们估计了CFC-11,CFC-12,CFC-113和CH3CCL3的一生使用多种逆方法。目前在最近的世界气象组织(WMO)科学评估臭氧耗尽中推荐的稳态寿命为45年,落下了我们估计的较低的不确定性,这是544861年(1-Sigma不确定性)使用静态数据时,使用NOAA网络数据时524561 YR。我们的CFC-113的衍生寿命显着高于85年的WMO估计,是10999121(疟原)和10997124(NOAA)。 CFC-12和CH3CCL3的稳态寿命的新估计与当前的WMO建议,是11195132和11295136 YR(CFC-12,疟原和NOAA)和5.044.925.20和5.044.875.23 YR(CH3CCL3,疟原虫和Noaa分别)。
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