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Forecasting Thunderstorms in Bangladesh: A Time Series Modeling Approach

机译:孟加拉国预测雷暴:时间序列建模方法

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A time-series modeling tool SARIMA (4,0,4)(1,1,1) [12] model has been implemented to project the total number of monthly thunderstorm-days at 34 different meteorological stations in Bangladesh. Efforts have been made to determine, as accurate as possible, the future number of thunderstorm-days up to five years. Detailed modeling procedure and forecasting accuracy are demonstrated. Due to the recent unusual rise in the number of deaths from lightning in Bangladesh, this research will be useful for policymakers to take the necessary precautions.
机译:时间序列建模工具Sarima(4,0,4)(1,1,1)[12]模型已经实施,以在孟加拉国的34个不同气象站项目中投射每月雷暴的总数。已经努力尽可能准确地确定,雷雨的未来次数最多五年。详细的建模程序和预测准确性得到了证明。由于孟加拉国雷电的雷区次数最近的不寻常上升,这项研究将有助于政策制定者采取必要的预防措施。

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