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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Probability >Dynamic Correlation Multivariate Stochastic VolatilityBlack-Litterman With Latent Factors
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Dynamic Correlation Multivariate Stochastic VolatilityBlack-Litterman With Latent Factors

机译:具有潜在因子的动态相关多变量随机易抗性

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In finance, it is often of interest to study market volatility for portfolios that may consist of a large number of assets usingmultivariate stochastic volatility models. However, such models, though useful, do not usually incorporate investor viewsthat might be available. In this paper we introduce a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology of modeling volatility fora large portfolio of assets that incorporates investor’s personal views of the market via the Black-Litterman (BL) model.We extend the scope and use of BL models by using it within a multivariate stochastic volatility model based on latentfactors for dimensionality reduction but allows for time varying correlations. Detailed derivations of MCMC algorithm areprovided with an illustration with S &P500 asset returns. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for the confidence levels that theinvestor has in their personal views is also explored. Numerical results show that the proposed method provides flexibleinterpretation based on the investor’s uncertainty in personal beliefs, and converges to the empirical sample estimate whentheir confidence level of the market becomes weak.
机译:在金融中,往往有兴趣的是研究投资组合的市场波动,这些产品可能包括多种资产的组合,其中包括多变量随机波动率模型。但是,这些模型虽然有用,但通常不会包含投资者Viewsthat。在本文中,我们介绍了一种新的分层贝叶斯方法,用于建模波动性的大型资产组合,通过黑色垃圾箱(BL)模型融入了投资者的个人观点。我们通过使用它来扩展到BL模型的范围和使用BL模型基于LatentFactors的维度减少的多变量随机挥发性模型,但允许时间变化相关性。 MCMC算法的详细派生通过与S&P500资产返回的例证进行了操作。此外,还探讨了吸引者在个人观点中的置信水平的敏感性分析。数值结果表明,该方法基于投资者对个人信仰的不确定性提供了灵活性的,并融合了市场估计市场疲软的实证样本估计。

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