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A short-term load forecasting model of multi-scale CNN-LSTM hybrid neural network considering the real-time electricity price

机译:考虑实时电价的多尺度CNN-LSTM混合神经网络短期负荷预测模型

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With the innovation of power market and the development of energy intelligent technology, load forecasting technology as an important direction of power system development plays an important role in power system planning. Aiming at the problem of insufficient feature extraction and low prediction accuracy, a short-term load forecasting model of multi-scale CNN-LSTM hybrid neural network considering the real-time electricity price is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the maximum information coefficient method is used to analyze the correlation between electricity price and load. The historical load, real-time electricity price, weather and other factors are constructed in the form of continuous feature maps as input. Secondly, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is used to cascade the shallower and deeper feature from four different scales. Feature vectors of different scales are fused as the input of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network , and LSTM network is used for short-term load forecasting. Finally, the proposed method is used to predict the real load data of a city in Liaoning Province. The experimental results show that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy than the standard LSTM model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, Random Forest (RF) model and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Besides, the prediction results show that this study has high application value and provides a new way for the development of power load forecasting.
机译:随着电力市场的创新和能源智能技术的发展,负载预测技术作为电力系统开发的重要方向在电力系统规划中起着重要作用。针对特征提取不足和低预测精度的问题,考虑到考虑实时电价的多尺度CNN-LSTM混合神经网络的短期负荷预测模型。首先,最大信息系数方法用于分析电价和负载之间的相关性。历史负荷,实时电价,天气和其他因素以连续特征贴图的形式构建为输入。其次,卷积神经网络(CNN)用于级联来自四个不同尺度的较浅和更深的特征。不同尺度的特征向量被融合为长短期内存(LSTM)网络的输入,LSTM网络用于短期负载预测。最后,该方法用于预测辽宁省城市的实际负荷数据。实验结果表明,该方法具有比标准LSTM模型更高的预测精度,支持向量机(SVM)模型,随机林(RF)模型和自动回归集成移动平均(ARIMA)模型。此外,预测结果表明,该研究具有高应用价值,并为电力负荷预测提供了一种新的方式。

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