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>SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives
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SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives
This paper provides an estimation of the accumulated detection rates and the accumulated number of infected individuals by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Worldwide, on July 20, it has been estimated above 160 million individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is found that only about 1 out of 11 infected individuals are detected. In an information context in which population-based seroepidemiological studies are not available, this study shows a parsimonious alternative to provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. By comparing our estimates with those provided by the population-based seroepidemiological ENE-COVID study in Spain, we confirm the utility of our approach keeping in mind that from the public health point of view, it is preferable to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. Then, by means of a cross-country regression, we investigated if differences in detection rates can explain differences in the cumulative number of deaths. The hypothesis investigated in this study is that higher levels of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections, which includes asymptomatic population, and those in their early stages of the infection (which are more infectious) can reduce the risk exposition of susceptible population with relatively higher risk of death. Our results show that, on average, detecting 5 instead 35 percent of the infections multiplies the number of deaths by a factor of about 6. Using this result, we estimated that 120 days after the pandemic outbreak, if the US would have tested with the same intensity as South Korea, about 85,000 out of their 126,000 reported deaths could have been avoided.
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