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Global Sensitivity Analysis to Study the Impacts of Bed-Nets, Drug Treatment, and Their Efficacies on a Two-Strain Malaria Model

机译:全球敏感性分析研究床网,药物治疗及其对两种菌株疟疾模型的影响

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Malaria is a deadly infectious disease, which is transmitted to humans via the bites of infected female mosquitoes. Antimalarial drug resistance has been identified as one of the characteristics of malaria that complicates control efforts. Typically, the use of insecticide-treated bed-nets (ITNs) and drug treatment are some of the recommended control strategies against malaria. Here, the use of ITNs, drug treatment, and their efficacies and evolution of antimalarial drug resistance are considered to be the major driving forces in the dynamics of malaria transmissions. We formulate a mathematical model of two-strain malaria to assess the impacts of ITNs, drug treatment, and their efficacies on the transmission dynamics of the disease in a human population. We propose a simple mosquito biting rate function that depends on both the proportion of ITN usage and its efficacy. We show that both disease-free and co-existence equilibrium points are globally-asymptotically stable where they exist. The global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis conducted show that if about 95% of malaria cases can be treated with fewer than 5% treatment failure in a population with 95% ITN usage that remains 95% effective, malaria can be controlled. We find that the order in which numerous intervention measures are taken is important.
机译:疟疾是一种致命的传染病,它通过感染的女性蚊子的叮咬传播给人类。抗疟药抗性已被鉴定为使控制努力变得复杂的疟疾特征之一。通常,使用杀虫剂处理的床网(ITNS)和药物处理是针对疟疾的一些推荐的控制策略。在此,使用ITNS,药物治疗和它们的疗效以及抗疟疾耐药性的演变被认为是疟疾变速器动态的主要驱动力。我们制定了两种菌株疟疾的数学模型,以评估ITNS,药物治疗及其对人口疾病传播动力学的影响。我们提出了一种简单的蚊子尖率函数,这取决于ITN使用的比例及其疗效。我们表明,无病和共存平衡点都存在于它们存在的全球渐近稳定状态。进行了全局不确定性和敏感性分析表明,如果疟疾病例的大约95%的疟疾病例较少,则可以控制95%的ITN使用量,疟疾可以控制持续95%。我们发现,采取了众多干预措施的顺序是重要的。

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