According to the features of COVID-19, the traditional SEIR infectious disease model was revised and COVID-19 model with the characteristic of transmission was established. Considering the fact that the parameters of the infectious power system are not constant, we divided the disease development of Wuhan area into three stages. Based on the processed data, parameter estimation and model solving were carried out in every step. Combined with the threshold analysis, the changes in model parameters were well explained. With disturbance analysis, the importance of isolation to the scale of this pandemic was confirmed.
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