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Modelling the Behaviour of Currency Exchange Rates with Singular Spectrum Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

机译:用奇异谱分析和人工神经网络建模货币汇率的行为

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A proper understanding and analysis of suitable models involved in forecasting currency exchange rates dynamics is essential to provide reliable information about the economy. This paper deals with model fit and model forecasting of eight time series of historical data about currency exchange rate considering the United States dollar as reference. The time series techniques: classical autoregressive integrated moving average model, the non-parametric univariate and multivariate singular spectrum analysis (SSA), artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, and a recent prominent hybrid method that combines SSA and ANN, are considered and their performance compared in terms of model fit and model forecasting. Moreover, specific methodological and computational adaptations were conducted to allow for these analyses and comparisons.
机译:对涉及预测货币汇率动态的合适模型的适当理解和分析对于提供有关经济的可靠信息至关重要。本文涉及八次历史数据的模型适合和模型预测,关于额外的美元汇率作为参考。时间序列技术:经典自回归综合移动平均模型,非参数单变量和多变量奇异频谱分析(SSA),人工神经网络(ANN)算法,以及结合SSA和ANN的最近突出的混合方法,以及它们在模型适合和模型预测方面进行了表现。此外,进行了具体的方法和计算适应,以允许这些分析和比较。

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