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A Brief Introduction to Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Recurrence Plots

机译:非线性时间序列分析和复发图简要介绍

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Nonlinear time series analysis gained prominence from the late 1980s on, primarily because of its ability to characterize, analyze, and predict nontrivial features in data sets that stem from a wide range of fields such as finance, music, human physiology, cognitive science, astrophysics, climate, and engineering. More recently, recurrence plots, initially proposed as a visual tool for the analysis of complex systems, have proven to be a powerful framework to quantify and reveal nontrivial dynamical features in time series data. This tutorial review provides a brief introduction to the fundamentals of nonlinear time series analysis, before discussing in greater detail a few (out of the many existing) approaches of recurrence plot-based analysis of time series. In particular, it focusses on recurrence plot-based measures which characterize dynamical features such as determinism, synchronization, and regime changes. The concept of surrogate-based hypothesis testing, which is crucial to drawing any inference from data analyses, is also discussed. Finally, the presented recurrence plot approaches are applied to two climatic indices related to the equatorial and North Pacific regions, and their dynamical behavior and their interrelations are investigated.
机译:非线性时间序列分析从20世纪80年代后期获得了突出,主要是因为它的表征,分析和预测数据集中的非竞争特征,这些数据集中源于各种领域,如金融,音乐,人体生理学,认知科学,天体物理学,气候和工程。最近,最初提出作为分析复杂系统的视觉工具的复发图已被证明是一种强大的框架,可以在时间序列数据中量化和揭示非竞争动态特征。本教程审查简要介绍了非线性时间序列分析的基本原理,然后更详细地讨论了几次(现有的众所数)基于时间序列的复发绘图分析分​​析的频率分析。特别是,它集中了基于曲线的衡量措施,其表征了确定性,同步和制度变化的动态特征。还讨论了基于代理的假设检测的概念,这对于从数据分析中汲取任何推论至关重要。最后,呈现的复发绘图方法适用于与赤道和北太平洋地区有关的两个气候指数,以及他们的动态行为及其相互关系。

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