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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation
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Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

机译:LSMS更好地表示的参数优化:逆建模与顺序数据同化

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摘要

Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999–2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1)?a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2)?a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p?value????0.01) between Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53?% of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.
机译:土壤最大可用含水量(maxawc)是陆地面模型(LSM)的关键参数。然而,难以测量,这个参数通常不确定。本研究评估了使用15年(1999-2013)时间序列的卫星衍生的低分辨率观测的可行性叶子区域指数(LAI)来估算法国雨量农田的Maxawc。利用土壤,生物圈和大气(ISBA)LSM之间的相互作用的CO2响应版本模拟LAI续际变异性。然后使用(1)选择最佳值(1)?一种简单的逆建模技术,比较模拟和观察到的Lai和(2)?一种更复杂的方法,包括通过土地数据同化系统(LDA)整合ISBA中观察到的LAI,并最小化Lai分析增量。来自两种方法的MaxAWC估计的评价是使用模拟的年度最大地上生物量(袋)和稻草谷物产量(GY)价值从Agreste法国农业统计门户网站,45个行政单位呈现出高比例的秸秆谷物。袋子和GY之间的显着相关性(p ???? 0.01)分别为逆建模和LDA调整方法的行政单位的额外高达36和53.%。结果发现,LDA调谐实验提供了比逆建模实验更逼真的MaxAWC和最大袋子。使用未识别的LAI观察结果导致在两种实验中低估MaxAWC和最大袋子。中位年度最大值的分类莱观察结果的最大值与Maxawc相比非常好。

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