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Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

机译:基于事件的随机点降雨统计复制和历史降雨系列的气候投影

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摘要

Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads to a large number of projected series. In order to evaluate and select the rainfall series with matching statistical properties as the key target projections, an extensive evaluation procedure is developed.
机译:连续和长期降雨系列是农村和城市水文的必要性,用于分析和设计目的。当地历史点降雨系列经常覆盖几十年,这使得可以在不同的时间尺度估算降雨意味着,并评估极端事件的回报期。然而,由于气候变化,这些系列最有可能没有代表未来的降雨。因此,对气候预测的长降雨系列有所要求,可以代表特定的地区和降雨量,以及长降雨系列的需求,包括投入到特定的未来期间的气候变化。本文介绍了历史点降雨系列重新采样框架,以产生合成降雨系列,具有与原始系列相同的统计特性。利用未来气候的许多关键目标预测,例如冬季和夏季降水,以及极端事件的代表,预先采样的历史系列预计将在未来的气候中代表降雨特性。气候预测的降雨系列是通过模型参数的蛮力随机化模拟,这导致大量的预计系列。为了评估和选择具有匹配统计特性的降雨系列作为关键目标投影,开发了一个广泛的评估程序。

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