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Experimental investigation of the predictive capabilities of data driven modeling techniques in hydrology - Part 1: Concepts and methodology

机译:水文中数据驱动建模技术预测能力的实验研究 - 第1部分:概念和方法

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A comprehensive data driven modeling experiment is presented in a two-part paper. In this first part, an extensive data-driven modeling experiment is proposed. The most important concerns regarding the way data driven modeling (DDM) techniques and data were handled, compared, and evaluated, and the basis on which findings and conclusions were drawn are discussed. A concise review of key articles that presented comparisons among various DDM techniques is presented. Six DDM techniques, namely, neural networks, genetic programming, evolutionary polynomial regression, support vector machines, M5 model trees, and K-nearest neighbors are proposed and explained. Multiple linear regression and na?ve models are also suggested as baseline for comparison with the various techniques. Five datasets from Canada and Europe representing evapotranspiration, upper and lower layer soil moisture content, and rainfall-runoff process are described and proposed, in the second paper, for the modeling experiment. Twelve different realizations (groups) from each dataset are created by a procedure involving random sampling. Each group contains three subsets; training, cross-validation, and testing. Each modeling technique is proposed to be applied to each of the 12 groups of each dataset. This way, both prediction accuracy and uncertainty of the modeling techniques can be evaluated. The description of the datasets, the implementation of the modeling techniques, results and analysis, and the findings of the modeling experiment are deferred to the second part of this paper.
机译:一个综合数据驱动的建模实验是在两部分纸上呈现的。在该第一部分中,提出了一种广泛的数据驱动建模实验。关于数据驱动建模(DDM)技术和数据的最重要问题是处理,比较和评估,以及讨论了所绘制的发现和结论的基础。提出了对各种DDM技术中呈现比较的关键文章的简明审查。提出并解释了六个DDM技术,即神经网络,遗传编程,进化多项式回归,支持向量机,M5模型树和K最近邻居。对于与各种技术进行比较,也建议多元线性回归和Na ve模型。从加拿大和欧洲代表蒸散,上层和下层土壤水分含量以及降雨 - 径流过程,并提出了一种用于建模实验的加拿大和欧洲的五个数据集。来自每个数据集的12个不​​同的实现(组)由涉及随机采样的过程创建。每组包含三个子集;培训,交叉验证和测试。提出每个建模技术应用于每个数据集的12个组中的每一个。这样,可以评估模拟技术的预测精度和不确定性。数据集的描述,建模技术的实现,结果和分析,以及建模实验的发现被推迟到本文的第二部分。

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