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外文期刊>Journal of Coastal Zone Management
>Surface Water Demand and Supply of Gaborone City and Surrounding Areas as Driven by Climate Change and Population Increase- Bosa MosekiemangBotswana International University of Science and Technology
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Surface Water Demand and Supply of Gaborone City and Surrounding Areas as Driven by Climate Change and Population Increase- Bosa MosekiemangBotswana International University of Science and Technology
Most governments have implemented laws and water management strategies. However, the adequate supply of the ever-increasing demand of fresh water continues to be a challenge. For example, many regions are facing formidable freshwater management challenges and resultantly allocation of limited water resources. One of the fundamental concerns is the impact of climate change and population increase on the supply and demand of fresh water in urban areas and high population surrounding villages. The anticipation for better lifestyles and improved water supply has resulted in an increase in migration from rural settlements leading to an increase in the populations of many cities globally. This study therefore investigates the variability and trends in the surface water demand and supply of the city of Gaborone and surrounding areas (Tlokweng, Mogoditshane, Kumakwane, Mmopane, Gabane and Gakuto) in response to population growth trends and climate change scenarios using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model. The study includes analysis of population trends, water production and consumption rates, hydrological information as well as historical and projected climate data at a high spatial resolution of 1 km2.The current General Circulation (GCM) or Regional Climate (RCM) models are not able provide such data. Therefore, the climate data for existing GCMs will be statistically downscaled using the high resolution Worldclim data to spatial resolution of 1 km2 and bias corrected against Global Climatology Precipitation Center (GPCC) precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) minimum and maximum temperature. The GCM data for historical as well as mid-range Concentration Representative Pathways (RCP4.5) and high emission RCP 8.5 future scenarios of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) will be employed in the study. Upon completion, the results of the study could be used for water resources planning and policy analysis, climate change mitigation and awareness creation and educational purposes. The satisfactory inventory of the always expanding request of new water keeps on being a test in pieces of the globe. This test has been disturbed because of expanding populace and environmental change. The expectation for better ways of life and improved water supply has brought about an expansion in relocation from country settlements prompting an increment in the populaces of numerous urban areas all around the world. This examination thusly researches the changeability and patterns in the surface water interest and supply of the city of Gaborone and encompassing territories because of populace development and environmental change utilizing the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model for future situations. The investigation incorporates examination of populace patterns, water creation and utilization rates, hydrological parts of the examination region just as projected environment information at a high spatial goal of 1 km2. The current General Circulation (GCM) or Regional Climate (RCM) models are not capable give such information. In this way, the environment information for existing GCMs is genuinely downscaled utilizing the high goal Worldclim information to spatial goal of 1 km2 and predisposition adjusted against Global Climatology Precipitation Center (GPCC) precipitation. The GCM information for the mid-range Concentration Representative Pathways (RCP4.5) and high emanation RCP 8.5 future situations of Coupled Model Inter-correlation Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are utilized in the investigation. Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 situations, the supply inflow shows that the degree of repositories at Foresthill, Diremogolo, Gabane slope, Oodi slope and Mabutswe will be decreased during 2081-2097 period. The neglected water interest of the entire investigation region will be 52.5 million m3 in 2050 when contrasted with 1490 million m3 in 2100 under RCP 8.5 environment and high populace development situations. Be that as it may, the neglected interest under RCP4.5 environment and high populace development situations will be 51.14 million m3 in 2050 when contrasted with 1450 million m3 in 2100. Then again, the neglected water request will be diminished by as much as half under the two situations if low populace development pace of 2.2% is expected. As a choice of water the board, expanding water misfortune decrease by 3% consistently could definitely lessen the neglected water interest.
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机译：大多数政府都实施了法律和水管理策略。然而，充分供应淡水不断增长的需求仍然是一项挑战。例如，许多地区正面临着强大的淡水管理挑战，从而产生有限的水资源分配。一个根本问题是气候变化和人口对城市地区淡水供需的影响和人口的影响。为更好的生活方式和改善供水的预期导致农村定居点的迁移增加，导致全球许多城市的人口增加。因此，本研究调查了哈布罗纳和周边地区（Tlokweng，Mogoditshane，Kumakwane，Mmopane，Gabane和Gakuto）的地表水需求和供应的可变性和趋势，以应对使用水评估的人口增长趋势和气候变化情景和规划（武器）水文模型。该研究包括分析人口趋势，水资源和消费率，水文信息以及历史和预定的气候数据，高空间分辨率为1公里。目前的一般流通（GCM）或区域气候（RCM）模型无法提供这些数据。因此，现有GCMS的气候数据将使用高分辨率的WorldClim数据与空间分辨率为1 km2的空间分辨率，并偏离全局气候沉淀中心（GPCC）降水和气候研究单位（CRU）最小和最高温度。在研究中，将在研究中使用历史以及中距离的历史和中里程浓度代表性途径（RCP4.5）和高发射RCP 8.5的未来情景。完成后，该研究的结果可用于水资源规划和政策分析，气候变化缓解和意识创造和教育目的。始终扩大新水资源要求的令人满意的库存一直是全球碎片的测试。由于扩大民众化和环境变化，该测试已被打扰。期望更好的生活方式和改善的供水方式带来了来自国家定居点的搬迁扩张，促使世界各地众多城市地区的民众增量。因此，这一考试研究了地表水资源利息和戈奈市供应的可变性和模式，包括利用水评估和规划（WEAM）模型为未来情况的群体发展和环境变化而涵盖领土。调查纳入群体模式，水创建和利用率，考试区域的水文部分的审查，正如预定的环境信息，在1 km 2的高空行程中。目前的一般循环（GCM）或区域气候（RCM）模型无法提供此类信息。通过这种方式，现有GCM的环境信息是利用高目标世界法信息的真正级别，以便为1 km2的空间目标和对全球气候沉淀中心（GPCC）降水调整的倾向调整。在调查中使用了用于中距浓度代表性途径（RCP4.5）和高散发型耦合模型相互关联项目阶段5（CMIP5）的未来情况的GCM信息。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5的情况下，供应流入表明，在2081-2097期间，林希尔，Dilemogolo，加巴山坡，OODI坡度和Mabutswe的储存程度将减少。忽视整个调查区域的忽视水利率为2050年的5250万立方米，当RCP 8.5环境和高众多民众发展情况下的2100人造成鲜明的14.9亿立方米。尽管如此，在2100年的1450万M3对比，rcp4.5环境和高众多人口发展情况下的被忽视的兴趣将是2050年的51140万M3。然后，忽略的水请求将减少多达一半在两种情况下，如果预计低2.2％的群体发展步伐。作为董事会的选择，将不幸减少3％持续减少被忽视的水兴趣。
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