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首页> 外文期刊>Emerging Infectious Diseases >Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
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Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

机译：2019年2019年新型冠状病毒病风险估算2019年1月至2月2020年

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摘要

Since December 2019, when the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.
机译：自2019年12月以来，当2019年新型冠状病毒病（Covid-19）在湖北省武汉市内确定了中国湖北省的第一个案例时，该流行病已经产生了中国成千上万的案件。截至2020年2月28日，中国报告的累计次数为2,858。我们估计武汉Covid-19的死亡时间延迟调整风险，以及中国不包括武汉，评估该国流行病的严重程度。我们对武汉死亡风险的估计达到了流行病的震中的价值高达12％，≈1％在其他温和地区的影响。升高的死亡风险估计可能与医疗保健系统的分解有关，表明，应实施加强的公共卫生干预，包括社会疏散和运动限制，以便在控制下带来Covid-19流行病。

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