Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability

Saurabh Rathore; Nathaniel L. Bindoff; Helen E. Phillips; Ming Feng

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Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability

机译：气候变化和内部变异引起的全球海洋变暖中最近的半球不对称

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Recent research shows that 90% of the net global ocean heat gain during 2005-2015 was confined to the southern hemisphere with little corresponding heat gain in the northern hemisphere ocean. We propose that this heating pattern of the ocean is driven by anthropogenic climate change and an asymmetric climate variation between the two hemispheres. This asymmetric variation is found in the pre-industrial control simulations from 11 climate models. While both layers (0-700?m and 700-2000?m) experience steady anthropogenic warming, the 0-700?m layer experiences large internal variability, which primarily drives the observed hemispheric asymmetry of global ocean heat gain in 0-2000?m layer. We infer that the rate of global ocean warming is consistent with the climate simulations for this period. However, the observed hemispheric asymmetry in heat gain can be explained by the Earth's internal climate variability without invoking alternate hypotheses, such as asymmetric aerosol loading.

机译：最近的研究表明，2005 - 2015年期间的90％的净全球海洋热量增益被局限于南半球，北半球海洋少量的热量增长。我们提出，这种海洋的加热模式受到人为气候变化的驱动和两个半球之间的不对称气候变化。在11个气候模型的预工业控制模拟中发现了这种不对称变化。虽然这两层（0-700？M和700-2000？M）经历稳定的人为变暖，但0-700？M层经历了大的内部变异性，主要推动观察到的全球海洋热增益的半球不对称？ m层。我们推断全球海洋变暖速度与此时期的气候模拟一致。然而，在没有调用交替假设的情况下，可以通过地球内部气候变异来解释热量增益中观察到的半球不对称性，例如不对称的气溶胶载荷。

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《Nature Communications》 |2020年第1期|共8页
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Saurabh Rathore; Nathaniel L. Bindoff; Helen E. Phillips; Ming Feng;
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3. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes [J] . Chu Cuijiao, Yang Xiu-Qun, Sun Xuguang, Climate dynamics . 2018,第7a8期

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4. Physical Condition of the Ocean to Global Climate Change Variability: Case Study in The Batam Waters, Indonesia [C] . Muhammad Zainuddin Lubis, Wenang Anurogo, Miratul Mufida, International Conference on Applied Engineering . 2018

机译：海洋的物理条件与全球气候变化的变化：以印度尼西亚巴淡水域为例
5. Changes in internal climate variability due to global warming [D] . LaJoie, Emerson Nicole 2016

机译：全球变暖导致内部气候变化的变化
6. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate [O] . Kaustubh Thirumalai, Terrence M. Quinn, Yuko Okumura, -1

机译：明显的百年尺度大西洋气候变化与西半球水文气候有关
7. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content. [O] . McGregor, Helen V., Evans, Michael N., Goosse, Hugues, 2015

机译：海洋调节了全球气候对自然和人为强迫的响应。然而，在过去的2,000年中（这是了解当前和未来气候对这些强迫的响应的关键间隔），全球海表温度变化及其潜在的驱动机制受到的约束很有限。在这里，我们提出了一个共同的时期（ce）的全球海面温度的全球综合，该综合来自57个符合严格质量控制标准的海洋重建项目。我们观察到从1到1800 ce的冷却趋势，对于显式测试重建中潜在的偏倚而言，该趋势很稳健。在801至1800 ce之间，表面降温趋势在质量上与地面温度重建的独立合成以及从使用过去外部辐射强迫的最佳估计的气候模型模拟集合推导出的海面温度合成在质量上是一致的。使用单一和累积强迫的气候模拟表明，从801到1800 ce的海洋表面冷却趋势主要不是对轨道强迫的反应，而是爆炸性火山爆发的频繁发生。我们的结果表明，火山喷发的反复簇可引起净的负辐射强迫，这会导致混合层海洋热量降低而导致百年和全球规模的降温趋势。

Recent hemispheric asymmetry in global ocean warming induced by climate change and internal variability

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