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Research on the Human Rights and Cultural Protection of Environmentally Displaced Persons under Rising Sea Levels

机译：海平面上升下环保人民人权与文化保护研究

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摘要

In recent years, due to factors such as rising sea levels, several island nations such as Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands are in danger of disappearing completely. When the land of an island country disappeared, the human rights protection of Environmentally Displaced Persons in the migration process and the possible loss of their unique culture, language, and lifestyle have aroused great concern. We call such Environmentally Displaced Persons as EDPs. This study selects the EDPs’ data of 241 countries or regions from 2008 to 2018, establishes an ARIMA model, and predicts the future population of EDPs. By combining the influencing factors of cultural loss, the risk assessment model of cultural loss is established to evaluate the possibility of cultural loss during the migration process of EDPs. We have established a Bayesian Network and a Fault Tree Model to demonstrate the improvement brought about by the implementation of policy recommendations from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives and use the method of fault tree analysis to illustrate the importance of policies from the degree of probability reduction after policy changes. Finally, based on the above model establishment and data analysis, corresponding countermeasures are proposed to protect EDPs’ human rights from being violated and their culture will not be lost.
机译：近年来，由于海平面上升等因素，几个岛国，如马尔代夫，图瓦卢，基里巴斯和马歇尔群岛都有完全消失的危险。当一个岛屿的土地消失时，人权保护在迁移过程中的环保流离失所者和可能的独特文化，语言和生活方式的可能丧失，引起了极大的关注。我们称这种环保流离失所者称为EDP。本研究选择了2008年至2018年241个国家或地区的EDPS数据，建立了Arima模型，并预测了EDP的未来人口。通过组合培养损失的影响因素，建立了文化损失风险评估模型，以评估EDP迁移过程中文化损失的可能性。我们建立了贝叶斯网络和一个故障树模型，以展示通过定性和定量观点的实施政策建议的改善，并使用故障树分析方法来说明政策的重要性从概率减少的程度下降政策变更。最后，根据上述模型建立和数据分析，建议采取相应的对策来保护EDPS的人权侵犯，其文化不会丢失。

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