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Evaluation and Prediction of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Strategy Based on the SEIR-AQ Infectious Disease Model

机译:基于Seir-AQ传染病模型的Covid-19预防和控制策略的评估与预测

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Based on the SEIR model, which takes into account prevention and control measures, prevention and control awareness, and economic level and medical level indicators, this paper proposes an infectious disease model of “susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-asymptomatic-isolated” (short for SEIR-AQ) to assess and predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic with different prevention and control strategies. The kinetic parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were obtained by fitting, and the parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were solved through the Euler method. Furthermore, the effects of different countries’ prevention and control strategies on the number of infections, the proportion of isolation, the number of deaths, and the number of recoveries were also simulated. The theoretical analysis showed that measures such as isolation for prevention and control and medical tracking isolation had a significant inhibitory effect on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, among which stratified treatment and enhanced awareness played a key role in the rapid regression of the peak of COVID-19-infected patients. Conclusion of the Simulation . The SEIR-AQ model can be used to evaluate the development status of the COVID-19 epidemic and has some theoretical value for the prediction of COVID-19.
机译:根据SEIR模型,考虑到预防和控制措施,预防和控制意识,经济水平和医学水平指标,提出了一种“易感暴露感染 - 脱落 - 孤立”的传染病模型( SEIR-AQ的缩写)以评估和预测不同预防和控制策略的Covid-19流行的发展。通过配合获得SeiR-AQ模型的动力学参数,通过欧拉方法解决SeiR-AQ模型的参数。此外,还模拟了不同国家预防和控制策略对感染次数的影响,分离比例,死亡人数和回收率的数量。理论分析表明,预防和控制和医疗跟踪隔离等措施对Covid-19大流行的发展具有显着的抑制作用,其中分层治疗和增强的意识在峰值的快速回归中发挥了关键作用Covid-19感染患者。仿真的结论。 SEIR-AQ模型可用于评估Covid-19流行病的发展状况,并对Covid-19预测具有一些理论值。

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