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首页> 外文期刊>Discrete dynamics in nature and society >Difference Equation Model-Based Prediction considering the Spatiotemporal Propagation: A Case Study of Bohai Rim Region, China
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Difference Equation Model-Based Prediction considering the Spatiotemporal Propagation: A Case Study of Bohai Rim Region, China

机译：基于差分等式模型的考虑时空繁殖的预测 - 以渤海地区，中国渤海地区为例

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摘要

Accurate reporting and prediction of concentration are very important for improving public health. In this article, we use a spectral clustering algorithm to cluster 44 cities in the Bohai Rim Region. On this basis, we propose a special difference equation model, especially the use of nonlinear diffusion equations to characterize the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of propagation between and within clusters for real-time prediction. For example, through the analysis of concentration data for 92 consecutive days in the Bohai Rim Region, and according to different accuracy definitions, the average prediction accuracy of the difference equation model in all city clusters is 97% or 90%. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the forecast data for each urban agglomeration is within 7 units . The experimental results show that the difference equation model can effectively reduce the prediction time, improve the prediction accuracy, and provide decision support for local air pollution early warning and urban comprehensive management.
机译：准确的报告和预测集中对于改善公共卫生非常重要。在本文中，我们使用光谱聚类算法在渤海地区的集群44个城市。在此基础上，我们提出了一种特殊的差异方程模型，尤其是使用非线性扩散方程来表征用于实时预测的簇之间的时间和空间动态特征。例如，通过分析渤海边缘地区连续92天的浓度数据，并根据不同的准确度定义，所有城市集群中差分方程模型的平均预测精度为97％或90％。每个城市集聚的预测数据的平均绝对误差（MAE）在7个单位内。实验结果表明，差分方程模型可以有效地降低预测时间，提高预测准确性，为局部空气污染预警和城市全面管理提供决策支持。

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