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Active Control and Sustained Oscillations in actSIS Epidemic Dynamics ?

机译：ACTSIS流行动态的主动控制和持续振荡 ？

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摘要

An actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) contagion model is presented for studying epidemic dynamics with continuous-time feedback control of infection rates. Our work is inspired by the observation that epidemics can be controlled through decentralized disease-control strategies such as quarantining, sheltering in place, social distancing, etc., where individuals can actively modify their contact rates in response to observations of the infection levels in the population. Accounting for a time lag in observations and categorizing individuals into distinct sub-populations based on their risk profiles, we show that the actSIS model manifests qualitatively different features as compared with the SIS model. In a homogeneous population of risk-averters, the endemic equilibrium is always reduced, although the transient infection level can overshoot or undershoot. In a homogeneous population of risk-tolerating individuals, the system exhibits bistability, which can also lead to reduced infection. For a heterogeneous population comprised of risk-tolerators and risk-averters, we prove conditions on model parameters for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation and sustained oscillations in the infected population.
机译：用于研究流行性动力学的积极控制的易感感染易感（ACTSIS）传染模型，具有对感染率的连续反馈控制。我们的作品受到观察到通过分散，庇护所在，社会疏散等的分散性疾病控制策略来控制流行病的启发，其中个人可以在响应于对感染水平的观察结果进行积极修改的联系率人口。在观察中延迟的时间滞后并根据其风险概况将个人分类为不同的子群体，我们表明，与SIS模型相比，Actsis模型表现出定性不同的功能。在均匀的风险易燃器群体中，流行均衡总是减少，尽管瞬态感染水平可以过冲或溢出。在均匀的风险耐受性群体中，系统表现出双稳态，这也可能导致感染降低。对于由风险宽容者和风险易逆者组成的异质人口，我们证明了在感染群体中存在跳跃分叉和持续振荡的模型参数的条件。

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